Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that SeaLink Travel Group Limited (ASX:SLK) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for SeaLink Travel Group
What Is SeaLink Travel Group's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2020 SeaLink Travel Group had AU$304.6m of debt, an increase on AU$3.53m, over one year. However, it also had AU$108.9m in cash, and so its net debt is AU$195.7m.
How Healthy Is SeaLink Travel Group's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, SeaLink Travel Group had liabilities of AU$296.4m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$404.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had AU$108.9m in cash and AU$96.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$495.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
SeaLink Travel Group has a market capitalization of AU$2.02b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While SeaLink Travel Group has a quite reasonable net debt to EBITDA multiple of 2.0, its interest cover seems weak, at 1.9. The main reason for this is that it has such high depreciation and amortisation. While companies often boast that these charges are non-cash, most such businesses will therefore require ongoing investment (that is not expensed.) Either way there's no doubt the stock is using meaningful leverage. SeaLink Travel Group grew its EBIT by 6.1% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if SeaLink Travel Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, SeaLink Travel Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
On our analysis SeaLink Travel Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, interest cover gives us cold feet. Considering this range of data points, we think SeaLink Travel Group is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with SeaLink Travel Group (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About ASX:KLS
Kelsian Group
Provides land and marine transport and tourism services in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.
Solid track record second-rate dividend payer.