Stock Analysis

Is Mayfield Childcare (ASX:MFD) A Risky Investment?

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ASX:MFD
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Mayfield Childcare Limited (ASX:MFD) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Mayfield Childcare

What Is Mayfield Childcare's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Mayfield Childcare had debt of AU$9.90m at the end of December 2020, a reduction from AU$12.8m over a year. However, it does have AU$1.57m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$8.33m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:MFD Debt to Equity History February 12th 2021

How Healthy Is Mayfield Childcare's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Mayfield Childcare had liabilities of AU$9.74m due within 12 months and liabilities of AU$31.6m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had AU$1.57m in cash and AU$1.03m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$38.7m.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of AU$30.2m, we think shareholders really should watch Mayfield Childcare's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While Mayfield Childcare's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.2 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 5.1 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Mayfield Childcare grew its EBIT by 9.7% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mayfield Childcare's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Mayfield Childcare actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Mayfield Childcare was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, level of total liabilities gives us cold feet. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Mayfield Childcare's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Mayfield Childcare has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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