Earnings Update: Jumbo Interactive Limited (ASX:JIN) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

It's been a sad week for Jumbo Interactive Limited (ASX:JIN), who've watched their investment drop 13% to AU$13.40 in the week since the company reported its annual result. Revenues of AU$159m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at AU$0.69, missing estimates by 2.9%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Jumbo Interactive

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Jumbo Interactive are now predicting revenues of AU$163.9m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 2.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.0% to AU$0.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$165.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.76 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$16.05, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Jumbo Interactive analyst has a price target of AU$19.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$13.10. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Jumbo Interactive's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jumbo Interactive.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jumbo Interactive. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jumbo Interactive's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$16.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Jumbo Interactive going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Jumbo Interactive that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.