Woolworths Group Limited

CHIA:WOW Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$36.5b

Woolworths Group Valuation

Is WOW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WOW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WOW (A$30.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$31.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WOW is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WOW?

Key metric: As WOW is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for WOW. This is calculated by dividing WOW's market cap by their current revenue.
What is WOW's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesAU$67.92b
Market CapAU$36.50b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does WOW's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for WOW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
COL Coles Group
0.6x2.9%AU$24.3b
EDV Endeavour Group
0.6x2.6%AU$7.7b
MTS Metcash
0.2x5.0%AU$3.3b
WN George Weston
0.5x3.2%CA$28.5b
WOW Woolworths Group
0.5x3.3%AU$36.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: WOW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does WOW's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Retailing Industry?

53 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WOW 0.5xIndustry Avg. 0.4xNo. of Companies90PS00.40.81.21.62+
53 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: WOW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the Global Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WOW's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WOW PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: WOW is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WOW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$30.07
AU$32.75
+8.9%
7.3%AU$37.30AU$28.50n/a15
Nov ’25AU$29.94
AU$32.83
+9.6%
7.5%AU$37.30AU$28.50n/a14
Oct ’25AU$33.42
AU$35.80
+7.1%
7.9%AU$40.10AU$27.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$35.68
AU$36.08
+1.1%
7.7%AU$40.10AU$27.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$34.90
AU$35.23
+0.9%
9.4%AU$40.20AU$27.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$33.49
AU$34.41
+2.8%
10.1%AU$40.20AU$27.50n/a15
Jun ’25AU$31.31
AU$33.96
+8.5%
10.1%AU$39.90AU$27.50n/a15
May ’25AU$31.92
AU$35.14
+10.1%
9.2%AU$40.40AU$27.50n/a15
Apr ’25AU$33.17
AU$35.46
+6.9%
9.0%AU$40.40AU$27.50n/a15
Mar ’25AU$33.09
AU$35.92
+8.5%
9.0%AU$40.40AU$27.50n/a14
Feb ’25AU$35.71
AU$38.26
+7.1%
9.9%AU$42.90AU$27.50n/a14
Jan ’25AU$37.25
AU$37.84
+1.6%
10.3%AU$42.60AU$27.50n/a15
Dec ’24AU$34.59
AU$37.74
+9.1%
10.6%AU$42.60AU$27.50n/a15
Nov ’24AU$34.97
AU$37.74
+7.9%
10.6%AU$42.60AU$27.50AU$29.9415
Oct ’24AU$37.27
AU$38.77
+4.0%
11.3%AU$43.10AU$27.50AU$33.4215
Sep ’24AU$38.07
AU$38.71
+1.7%
11.1%AU$43.10AU$27.50AU$35.6816
Aug ’24AU$39.05
AU$38.54
-1.3%
12.1%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$34.9016
Jul ’24AU$39.64
AU$38.53
-2.8%
12.6%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$33.4916
Jun ’24AU$38.00
AU$38.58
+1.5%
12.0%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$31.3115
May ’24AU$38.85
AU$38.21
-1.6%
11.7%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$31.9215
Apr ’24AU$37.94
AU$37.71
-0.6%
12.2%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$33.1716
Mar ’24AU$36.82
AU$37.71
+2.4%
12.2%AU$43.00AU$27.00AU$33.0916
Feb ’24AU$36.06
AU$35.42
-1.8%
11.4%AU$41.70AU$26.50AU$35.7116
Jan ’24AU$33.55
AU$35.15
+4.8%
11.7%AU$41.70AU$26.50AU$37.2516
Dec ’23AU$34.59
AU$35.01
+1.2%
11.9%AU$41.70AU$26.50AU$34.5916
Nov ’23AU$33.35
AU$37.15
+11.4%
11.9%AU$42.80AU$26.50AU$34.9715

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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