Gale Pacific Limited (ASX:GAP) Stock Catapults 27% Though Its Price And Business Still Lag The Industry

Gale Pacific Limited (ASX:GAP) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 18% in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, given about half the companies operating in Australia's Consumer Durables industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 0.8x, you may still consider Gale Pacific as an attractive investment with its 0.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Gale Pacific

What Does Gale Pacific's Recent Performance Look Like?

Revenue has risen firmly for Gale Pacific recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/S. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Gale Pacific, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as Gale Pacific's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 8.8% last year. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 4.9% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 6.4% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we are not surprised that Gale Pacific is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Gale Pacific's P/S close to the industry median. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

It's no surprise that Gale Pacific maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Gale Pacific has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.