Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND): Valuation in Focus After Upgraded FY26 Revenue Outlook and Strategic Expansion

Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) saw its shares surge after issuing a new revenue forecast for FY26, pointing to growth of 20 to 25 percent compared to the previous year. This outlook follows a number of fresh contract wins and the acquisition of Kerman Contracting, both of which are expected to expand Monadelphous’s service offerings and customer base.

See our latest analysis for Monadelphous Group.

Momentum is clearly building for Monadelphous Group, with its recent contract wins and bullish revenue outlook helping drive a 92.5% share price return year to date and an impressive 125.95% total shareholder return over the past year. Investors appear to be warming to the company’s renewed growth ambitions, with the share price sitting at $26.97 following a run of analyst upgrades and strategic moves in the resources sector.

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With such dramatic gains and a flurry of analyst upgrades, the big question now is whether Monadelphous Group’s current share price still offers value or if the market has already factored in its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.6% Overvalued

Monadelphous Group's fair value is set at A$21.82 in the most widely followed valuation narrative, which is well below the recent closing price of A$26.97. This gap highlights that market optimism has outpaced the consensus outlook for future earnings and returns.

Accelerating investment in decarbonisation and renewable energy infrastructure is now translating into tangible contract wins and a growing pipeline, as evidenced by record awards secured by Zenviron and new high-voltage services capability. This positions Monadelphous for significant revenue growth and supports long-term earnings visibility as energy transition projects ramp up across Australia and the region.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why Monadelphous is priced well above fair value? The narrative hinges on bold growth bets, ambitious revenue shifts, and future profit multiples that could spark debate. Find out which future projections are driving this confident valuation call. Read the full story to unlock the financial logic behind the fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $21.82 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent skilled labor shortages and delays in new project awards could threaten Monadelphous Group’s revenue growth and long-term earnings stability.

Find out about the key risks to this Monadelphous Group narrative.

Build Your Own Monadelphous Group Narrative

If you think the story could unfold differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it takes just a few minutes to shape your own view. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Monadelphous Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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