Investor Optimism Abounds AJ Lucas Group Limited (ASX:AJL) But Growth Is Lacking

It's not a stretch to say that AJ Lucas Group Limited's (ASX:AJL) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Construction industry in Australia, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for AJ Lucas Group

How AJ Lucas Group Has Been Performing

Recent times have been quite advantageous for AJ Lucas Group as its revenue has been rising very briskly. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on AJ Lucas Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, AJ Lucas Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 32% gain to the company's top line. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Therefore, it's fair to say that revenue growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 7.8% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that AJ Lucas Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From AJ Lucas Group's P/S?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that AJ Lucas Group's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for AJ Lucas Group (3 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.