MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A.

WBAG:MERL Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.7b

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI Valuation

Is MERL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MERL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MERL (€10.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€7.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MERL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MERL?

Key metric: As MERL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MERL. This is calculated by dividing MERL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MERL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio44.4x
Earnings€129.34m
Market Cap€5.74b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MERL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MERL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.3x
LAND Land Securities Group
40.6x26.7%UK£4.3b
SGP Stockland
38.3x17.1%AU$11.7b
3462 Nomura Real Estate Master Fund
20.9x-3.8%JP¥641.5b
BLND British Land
21.4x22.3%UK£3.6b
MERL MERLIN Properties SOCIMI
44.4x33.0%€5.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MERL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.4x) compared to the peer average (30.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MERL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MERL 44.4xIndustry Avg. 21.2xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MERL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.4x) compared to the European REITs industry average (21.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MERL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MERL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio44.4x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MERL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MERL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.20
€13.05
+27.9%
14.4%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Dec ’25€10.32
€12.97
+25.7%
14.0%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Nov ’25€10.30
€12.95
+25.7%
14.1%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Oct ’25€11.43
€12.54
+9.7%
13.7%€15.00€7.52n/a19
Sep ’25€11.07
€12.33
+11.3%
11.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Aug ’25€10.61
€12.17
+14.7%
11.0%€14.60€9.70n/a17
Jul ’25€10.69
€12.09
+13.1%
9.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Jun ’25€10.61
€11.74
+10.7%
9.7%€14.30€9.70n/a17
May ’25€10.67
€11.29
+5.8%
9.0%€13.10€9.70n/a19
Apr ’25€9.86
€10.77
+9.2%
12.9%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Mar ’25€8.85
€10.73
+21.3%
12.8%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Feb ’25€9.40
€10.66
+13.4%
12.5%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Jan ’25€10.13
€10.17
+0.4%
12.7%€12.50€6.40€10.0720
Dec ’24€9.28
€10.11
+8.9%
13.0%€12.50€6.40€10.3220
Nov ’24€7.81
€9.96
+27.6%
14.7%€12.50€6.40€10.3017
Oct ’24€7.96
€10.09
+26.9%
15.6%€13.00€6.40€11.4317
Sep ’24€8.34
€10.24
+22.7%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€11.0717
Aug ’24€8.45
€10.24
+21.1%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€10.6117
Jul ’24€7.81
€10.20
+30.6%
13.0%€13.00€7.90€10.6917
Jun ’24€7.70
€10.41
+35.1%
14.2%€13.33€7.90€10.6117
May ’24€7.97
€10.56
+32.6%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€10.6717
Apr ’24€8.07
€10.59
+31.2%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€9.8617
Mar ’24€8.95
€10.60
+18.4%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€8.8517
Feb ’24€8.98
€10.72
+19.5%
14.3%€13.33€7.90€9.4017
Jan ’24€8.88
€10.74
+21.0%
14.3%€13.33€7.80€10.1317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/03 02:32
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is covered by 38 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pedro AlvesBanco BPI, S.A.
Filipe LeiteBanco BPI, S.A.
Ignacio RomeroBanco de Sabadell. S.A.