Gecina

WBAG:GFC Stock Report

Market Cap: €7.0b

Gecina Valuation

Is GFC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFC (€94.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€119.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFC?

Key metric: As GFC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GFC. This is calculated by dividing GFC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GFC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio8.6x
Sales€813.97m
Market Cap€7.02b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GFC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GFC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.7x
8951 Nippon Building Fund
11.4x-1.2%JP¥1.1t
VNO Vornado Realty Trust
4.1x2.1%US$8.4b
8952 Japan Real Estate Investment
9.6x-3.8%JP¥806.8b
CUZ Cousins Properties
5.9x4.6%US$4.8b
GFC Gecina
8.5x0.08%€7.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GFC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GFC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Office REITs Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GFC 8.6xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies4PS0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GFC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.5x) compared to the European Office REITs industry average (8.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio8.6x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GFC's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€94.45
€116.39
+23.2%
10.3%€135.00€88.50n/a15
Nov ’25€98.25
€116.39
+18.5%
10.3%€135.00€88.50n/a15
Oct ’25€104.10
€113.71
+9.2%
9.5%€127.00€88.50n/a15
Sep ’25€100.10
€110.91
+10.8%
12.6%€122.80€74.90n/a15
Aug ’25€93.30
€110.91
+18.9%
12.6%€122.80€74.90n/a15
Jul ’25€89.15
€110.10
+23.5%
12.0%€122.00€74.90n/a15
Jun ’25€98.75
€110.79
+12.2%
11.7%€122.00€74.90n/a15
May ’25€96.15
€110.79
+15.2%
11.7%€122.00€74.90n/a15
Apr ’25€93.80
€111.46
+18.8%
12.4%€132.00€74.90n/a15
Mar ’25€89.65
€114.06
+27.2%
12.8%€132.00€74.90n/a15
Feb ’25€103.20
€114.95
+11.4%
13.3%€132.00€74.90n/a15
Jan ’25€111.00
€111.93
+0.8%
12.7%€130.00€74.90n/a15
Dec ’24€102.30
€111.25
+8.8%
12.5%€130.00€74.90n/a15
Nov ’24€92.55
€112.99
+22.1%
12.3%€130.00€74.90€98.2514
Oct ’24€94.95
€114.42
+20.5%
12.1%€130.00€74.90€104.1015
Sep ’24€96.95
€114.22
+17.8%
12.4%€130.00€74.90€100.1015
Aug ’24€98.25
€114.03
+16.1%
11.8%€130.00€74.90€93.3015
Jul ’24€95.15
€113.64
+19.4%
11.8%€130.00€77.40€89.1514
Jun ’24€95.00
€113.54
+19.5%
11.9%€130.00€77.40€98.7514
May ’24€98.25
€113.32
+15.3%
11.6%€125.00€77.40€96.1514
Apr ’24n/a
€113.32
0%
11.6%€125.00€77.40€93.8014
Mar ’24n/a
€113.66
0%
11.9%€130.40€77.40€89.6514
Feb ’24€108.60
€111.59
+2.7%
10.9%€125.00€77.40€103.2014
Jan ’24€95.90
€108.66
+13.3%
12.3%€130.50€77.40€111.0014
Dec ’23€94.40
€108.13
+14.5%
12.5%€130.50€77.40€102.3014
Nov ’23€91.65
€108.86
+18.8%
12.6%€130.50€77.40€92.5514

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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