One thing we could say about the analysts on UBM Development AG (VIE:UBS) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from UBM Development's four analysts is for revenues of €136m in 2025, which would reflect a decent 11% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of €158m in 2025. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on UBM Development, given the substantial drop in revenue estimates.
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One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that UBM Development is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 23% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 21% annual decline over the past five years. What's also interesting is that our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 2.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although UBM Development is expected to return to growth, it's also expected to grow revenues during a time when the wider industry is estimated to see revenue decline.
The Bottom Line
The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for UBM Development this year. They're also forecasting for revenues to perform better than companies in the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on UBM Development after today.
Unanswered questions? At least one of UBM Development's four analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.