Alcoa Corporation

WBAG:ALCA Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.8b

Alcoa Valuation

Is ALCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€120.36
Fair Value
81.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ALCA (€22.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€120.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALCA?

Key metric: As ALCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALCA. This is calculated by dividing ALCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.8x
EarningsUS$847.00m
Market CapUS$6.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.7x
AMAG AMAG Austria Metall
20.2x25.2%€871.0m
WIE Wienerberger
41.3x42.6%€3.3b
MMK Mayr-Melnhof Karton
14.6x26.6%€1.6b
486 United Company RUSAL International
11xn/aHK$65.3b
ALCA Alcoa
7.8x-6.3%€6.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (21.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ALCA 7.8xIndustry Avg. 12.6xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.8x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€22.46
€32.33
+44.0%
23.2%€45.92€22.08n/a13
Apr ’26€27.72
€43.41
+56.6%
10.9%€53.61€36.97n/a13
Mar ’26€31.80
€46.05
+44.8%
11.1%€55.60€38.34n/a13
Feb ’26€34.81
€46.05
+32.3%
11.1%€55.60€38.34n/a13
Jan ’26€36.05
€46.78
+29.8%
11.9%€55.59€36.42n/a13
Dec ’25€44.06
€45.19
+2.6%
12.1%€55.26€36.68n/a13
Nov ’25€37.83
€43.51
+15.0%
10.8%€50.95€35.67n/a13
Oct ’25€35.29
€40.17
+13.8%
14.4%€49.69€32.52n/a12
Sep ’25€28.98
€40.77
+40.7%
13.7%€50.32€33.85n/a10
Aug ’25€29.49
€40.85
+38.5%
15.0%€50.88€31.45n/a10
Jul ’25€37.58
€38.16
+1.5%
21.5%€48.69€23.41n/a11
Jun ’25€40.25
€35.67
-11.4%
20.8%€48.15€23.15n/a11
May ’25€33.43
€33.64
+0.6%
16.5%€44.77€23.32n/a12
Apr ’25€31.13
€28.27
-9.2%
20.9%€41.57€20.32€27.7212
Mar ’25€25.55
€28.14
+10.1%
20.8%€41.63€20.35€31.8012
Feb ’25€26.93
€28.78
+6.9%
17.8%€41.31€21.11€34.8113
Jan ’25€31.26
€27.90
-10.7%
18.4%€40.75€20.83€36.0512
Dec ’24€25.45
€28.19
+10.8%
20.8%€41.12€21.02€44.0611
Nov ’24€23.70
€28.87
+21.8%
21.6%€42.48€21.71€37.8311
Oct ’24€27.98
€34.75
+24.2%
24.3%€51.60€23.45€35.2910
Sep ’24€28.73
€34.80
+21.1%
20.3%€50.27€22.85€28.9812
Aug ’24€32.27
€35.14
+8.9%
20.0%€49.89€22.68€29.4912
Jul ’24€30.58
€41.99
+37.3%
18.3%€55.21€30.36€37.5812
Jun ’24€30.35
€46.44
+53.0%
16.4%€60.82€34.62€40.2512
May ’24€33.27
€45.94
+38.1%
14.3%€59.25€36.46€33.4310
Apr ’24€39.24
€50.00
+27.4%
14.1%€59.96€40.59€31.1310
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
€32.17
Fair Value
30.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/28 14:08
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/28 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 27 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Paretosh MisraBerenberg