Japan Tobacco Inc.

WBAG:JAT Stock Report

Market Cap: €44.7b

Japan Tobacco Valuation

Is JAT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JAT (€25.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€42.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JAT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JAT?

Key metric: As JAT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for JAT. This is calculated by dividing JAT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is JAT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.2x
EarningsJP¥482.69b
Market CapJP¥7.32t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JAT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JAT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
ITC ITC
29.1x9.6%₹6.0t
IMB Imperial Brands
8.1x-4.8%UK£21.2b
MO Altria Group
8.8x-4.2%US$90.6b
PM Philip Morris International
19.5x9.4%US$191.1b
JAT Japan Tobacco
15.2x6.6%€7.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JAT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
JAT 15.2xIndustry Avg. 12.3xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JAT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (12.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JAT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JAT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate JAT's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JAT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€25.16
€28.13
+11.8%
6.5%€30.57€24.46n/a9
Dec ’25€26.05
€28.40
+9.0%
6.5%€30.87€24.70n/a9
Nov ’25€25.46
€27.97
+9.9%
9.3%€32.98€24.20n/a9
Oct ’25€26.37
€28.94
+9.7%
11.0%€34.54€22.81n/a9
Sep ’25€26.06
€28.15
+8.0%
10.7%€33.76€22.30n/a9
Aug ’25€25.91
€26.02
+0.4%
10.6%€30.74€21.08n/a10
Jul ’25€25.21
€25.14
-0.3%
10.6%€30.28€20.76n/a10
Jun ’25€26.04
€24.60
-5.5%
7.7%€28.05€21.26n/a12
May ’25€25.15
€23.77
-5.5%
8.5%€26.64€19.85n/a12
Apr ’25€24.58
€24.07
-2.1%
8.9%€27.41€20.43n/a12
Mar ’25€23.81
€23.95
+0.6%
8.6%€27.76€20.68n/a13
Feb ’25€24.52
€22.40
-8.6%
14.0%€27.17€13.77n/a12
Jan ’25€23.90
€21.54
-9.9%
12.8%€25.15€14.19n/a12
Dec ’24€24.07
€20.41
-15.2%
13.0%€24.07€13.58€26.0513
Nov ’24€22.93
€19.31
-15.8%
11.9%€23.19€13.71€25.4613
Oct ’24€21.77
€18.86
-13.4%
10.1%€21.47€13.89€26.3712
Sep ’24€20.29
€18.84
-7.2%
10.0%€21.50€13.91€26.0612
Aug ’24€19.76
€18.82
-4.8%
10.4%€21.73€14.06€25.9112
Jul ’24€20.17
€18.41
-8.7%
11.5%€21.60€13.98€25.2112
Jun ’24€20.44
€18.94
-7.3%
12.5%€22.09€14.86€26.0412
May ’24€19.73
€18.69
-5.3%
11.3%€21.78€14.97€25.1512
Apr ’24€19.36
€19.40
+0.2%
11.0%€22.75€15.64€24.5812
Mar ’24€19.12
€18.36
-3.9%
12.6%€22.24€15.29€23.8113
Feb ’24€18.80
€18.36
-2.4%
10.7%€22.15€15.55€24.5213
Jan ’24€19.08
€18.52
-2.9%
9.9%€22.40€15.73€23.9014
Dec ’23€19.78
€17.34
-12.3%
11.1%€21.32€14.29€24.0714

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 02:21
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Japan Tobacco Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Gaurav JainBarclays
Takayuki HayanoBarclays
Jonathan LeinsterBerenberg