More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Gurktaler Aktiengesellschaft's (VIE:GAGS) Shares After Tumbling 35%

Gurktaler Aktiengesellschaft (VIE:GAGS) shares have retraced a considerable 35% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Gurktaler may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.4x, since almost half of all companies in Austria have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For instance, Gurktaler's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Gurktaler

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Gurktaler, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Gurktaler's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Gurktaler's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 21%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 18% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Gurktaler's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Gurktaler's P/E

Gurktaler's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Gurktaler currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 5 warning signs for Gurktaler (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Gurktaler, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.