Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

WBAG:ARDA Stock Report

Market Cap: €24.4b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Valuation

Is ARDA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARDA (€50.89) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€21.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARDA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARDA?

Key metric: As ARDA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARDA. This is calculated by dividing ARDA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARDA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.2x
EarningsUS$1.80b
Market CapUS$25.61b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARDA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARDA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.6x
F34 Wilmar International
9.2x5.9%S$19.2b
BG Bunge Global
10.7x17.2%US$12.3b
INGR Ingredion
13.8x0.5%US$9.3b
SDG SD Guthrie Berhad
20.9x2.0%RM 33.2b
ARDA Archer-Daniels-Midland
14.2x4.0%€25.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARDA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ARDA 14.2xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies16PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARDA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARDA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ARDA's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARDA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€50.89
€55.75
+9.5%
8.9%€62.16€48.03n/a10
Nov ’25€50.87
€57.15
+12.3%
4.2%€61.04€52.71n/a10
Oct ’25€53.99
€56.12
+3.9%
4.5%€60.29€51.29n/a12
Sep ’25€54.93
€56.81
+3.4%
4.5%€61.37€52.21n/a12
Aug ’25€56.57
€57.37
+1.4%
4.7%€61.87€52.64n/a11
Jul ’25€56.64
€58.12
+2.6%
5.1%€64.27€53.09n/a11
Jun ’25€56.42
€58.81
+4.2%
6.5%€68.98€53.14n/a15
May ’25€54.70
€59.64
+9.0%
7.5%€69.21€53.31n/a16
Apr ’25€58.40
€59.62
+2.1%
9.5%€69.41€52.75n/a14
Mar ’25€50.40
€62.28
+23.6%
17.9%€90.62€50.60n/a15
Feb ’25€51.80
€62.28
+20.2%
17.9%€90.62€50.60n/a15
Jan ’25€65.40
€82.08
+25.5%
14.1%€106.07€64.01n/a15
Dec ’24€68.80
€85.19
+23.8%
14.7%€108.39€65.41n/a15
Nov ’24€67.80
€85.87
+26.7%
14.5%€109.26€65.93€50.8715
Oct ’24€71.80
€92.24
+28.5%
12.7%€111.37€66.63€53.9915
Sep ’24€74.20
€88.87
+19.8%
12.7%€107.30€64.20€54.9315
Aug ’24€77.00
€88.18
+14.5%
12.8%€106.40€63.66€56.5715
Jul ’24€68.60
€85.56
+24.7%
14.2%€106.51€63.72€56.6415
Jun ’24€65.80
€87.29
+32.7%
14.8%€108.74€65.06€56.4214
May ’24€70.40
€87.12
+23.7%
13.7%€106.14€63.50€54.7015
Apr ’24€73.47
€91.66
+24.8%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€58.4014
Mar ’24€74.54
€91.66
+23.0%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€50.4014
Feb ’24€76.22
€91.66
+20.3%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€51.8014
Jan ’24€87.64
€93.40
+6.6%
12.2%€110.31€66.00€65.4015
Dec ’23€87.62
€98.25
+12.1%
12.0%€117.39€70.23€68.8014
Nov ’23€99.20
€98.25
-1.0%
12.0%€117.39€70.23€67.8014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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