Exxon Mobil Corporation

WBAG:XOM Stock Report

Market Cap: €489.1b

Exxon Mobil Valuation

Is XOM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XOM (€109.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€195.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XOM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XOM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

XOM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8x
PEG Ratio3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XOM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XOM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.3x
OMV OMV
8.3x6.4%€12.9b
CVX Chevron
14.7x5.4%US$273.8b
SHEL Shell
11.4x5.4%UK£159.4b
857 PetroChina
6.6x-4.3%HK$1.7t
XOM Exxon Mobil
15.8x5.2%€539.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XOM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XOM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a
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Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XOM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XOM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XOM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XOM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XOM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€110.80
€118.12
+6.6%
7.7%€134.87€99.57n/a25
Sep ’25€105.80
€119.43
+12.9%
8.5%€141.36€99.04n/a25
Aug ’25€108.80
€121.83
+12.0%
8.7%€140.55€101.05n/a25
Jul ’25€107.76
€123.70
+14.8%
8.4%€143.70€106.37n/a23
Jun ’25€105.58
€122.83
+16.3%
8.6%€140.10€101.39n/a23
May ’25€111.68
€122.38
+9.6%
9.1%€140.52€103.05n/a24
Apr ’25€107.16
€115.57
+7.8%
8.2%€138.12€97.34n/a23
Mar ’25€98.01
€115.27
+17.6%
9.2%€138.30€97.46n/a24
Feb ’25€95.22
€114.49
+20.2%
9.1%€137.36€96.80n/a24
Jan ’25€90.95
€114.16
+25.5%
9.7%€135.80€95.06n/a24
Dec ’24€95.57
€116.85
+22.3%
9.0%€137.93€101.15n/a24
Nov ’24€100.84
€120.18
+19.2%
9.9%€141.95€104.09n/a24
Oct ’24€111.30
€116.99
+5.1%
9.8%€142.02€99.41€108.3423
Sep ’24€104.28
€113.45
+8.8%
9.2%€135.53€97.47€105.8023
Aug ’24€96.51
€109.99
+14.0%
9.7%€132.44€90.71€108.8023
Jul ’24€98.60
€113.95
+15.6%
9.2%€133.79€89.81€107.7624
Jun ’24€96.20
€117.08
+21.7%
9.8%€136.10€91.36€105.5824
May ’24€108.24
€114.79
+6.1%
10.6%€134.90€89.33€111.6826
Apr ’24€101.04
€114.57
+13.4%
10.2%€136.44€90.35€107.1627
Mar ’24€103.94
€114.55
+10.2%
10.5%€138.04€91.40€98.0127
Feb ’24€105.80
€111.29
+5.2%
10.2%€129.26€89.21€95.2227
Jan ’24€101.96
€107.63
+5.6%
13.8%€128.88€71.91€90.9527
Dec ’23€105.86
€108.61
+2.6%
13.7%€131.10€73.15€95.5727
Nov ’23€113.28
€112.88
-0.4%
13.4%€137.69€77.95€100.8427
Oct ’23€90.70
€106.90
+17.9%
13.4%€136.72€78.56€111.3027

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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