Calculating The Fair Value Of Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment Aktiengesellschaft (VIE:SBO)

Key Insights

• Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment's estimated fair value is €57.9 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €59.5 suggests Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment is trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for SBO is €80.50 which is 39% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment Aktiengesellschaft (VIE:SBO) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€44.4m	€74.8m	€81.9m	€89.1m	€94.1m	€97.8m	€100.6m	€102.7m	€104.3m	€105.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.56%	Est @ 3.98%	Est @ 2.88%	Est @ 2.10%	Est @ 1.56%	Est @ 1.18%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 10%	€40.3	€61.5	€61.0	€60.2	€57.6	€54.3	€50.6	€46.8	€43.1	€39.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €515m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €106m× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (10%– 0.3%) = €1.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €1.1b÷ ( 1 + 10%)¹⁰= €396m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €911m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €59.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.647. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment, we've put together three relevant aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does SBO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the WBAG every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.