Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC Just Beat EPS By 7.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Explore Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

A week ago, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADX:ADNOCDIST) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 5.1% to hit د.إ8.6b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at د.إ0.054, some 7.1% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be د.إ35.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be د.إ0.21, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of د.إ35.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of د.إ0.21 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of د.إ4.30, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC analyst has a price target of د.إ4.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at د.إ3.60. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at د.إ4.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.