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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Stock Price

NYSE:ZTO Community·US$15.7b Market Cap
  • 4 Narratives written by author
  • 5 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 35 Fair Values set on narratives written by author
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ZTO Share Price Performance

US$20.85
1.51 (7.81%)
​
US$29.03
Fair Value
US$20.85
1.51 (7.81%)
28.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$29.03
Fair Value
Price US$20.85
AnalystConsensusTarget US$29.03
AnalystHighTarget US$32.53
AnalystLowTarget US$22.03

ZTO Community Narratives

Fair Value
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Fair Value US$29.03 28.2% undervalued intrinsic discount

Sustained Profitability And Efficiency Will Drive Continued Market Outperformance

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Fair Value
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Fair Value US$32.53 35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

E-commerce And AI Logistics Will Transform China And Southeast Asia

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Fair Value
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Fair Value US$22.03 5.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

Chinese E-Commerce Deceleration And Cost Pressures Will Strain Performance

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ZTO Express (Cayman)
5.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Updated

Chinese E-Commerce Deceleration And Cost Pressures Will Strain Performance

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Updated 4 Sep
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ZTO Express (Cayman)
28.2% undervalued intrinsic discount

Sustained Profitability And Efficiency Will Drive Continued Market Outperformance

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Updated 29 Jun
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ZTO Express (Cayman)
35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

E-commerce And AI Logistics Will Transform China And Southeast Asia

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Updated 15 Jun
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Trending Discussion

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Updated Narratives

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ZTO: Quality Pivot And Buybacks Will Test Margin Resilience And Sentiment

Fair Value: US$22.03 5.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
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ZTO: Market Share Gains And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating

Fair Value: US$29.03 28.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
17 users have set this as their fair value
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ZTO: Future Buybacks And Margin Gains Will Support Share Upside

Fair Value: US$32.53 35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
3 users have set this as their fair value
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Snowflake Analysis

Very undervalued with solid track record.

0 Risks
5 Rewards
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Key Details

CN¥54.2b

Revenue

CN¥40.6b

Cost of Revenue

CN¥13.6b

Gross Profit

CN¥3.3b

Other Expenses

CN¥10.3b

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
n/a
13.58
25.10%
19.03%
34.2%
View Full Analysis

About ZTO

Founded
2002
Employees
23888
CEO
Meisong Lai
WebsiteView website
www.zto.com

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Recent ZTO News & Updates

Narrative Update • Sep 04

ZTO: Quality Pivot And Buybacks Will Test Margin Resilience And Sentiment

Analysts have trimmed the base case fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) to about $22 from roughly $23.50, reflecting lower volume guidance, a reduced Street price target to $22 from $29, and a greater focus on quality, cost discipline, and margin resilience even as expected future P/E multiples ease. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on ZTO Express (Cayman) has turned more cautious as expectations around parcel growth, pricing, and what the market is willing to pay for the stock are reset.
Narrative Update • Aug 21

ZTO: Buybacks And Alibaba Overhang Will Balance Pricing And Earnings Execution

Analysts trimmed their fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) to about $23.48 from $24.24 as they balanced a lower revenue growth outlook and a reduced future P/E multiple with expectations for firmer profit margins, improving industry pricing, and ongoing shareholder returns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) points to a mixed backdrop, with some firms expressing confidence in industry pricing and shareholder returns, while bearish analysts highlight fresh overhangs and valuation questions.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 21

ZTO Express: The Power Of Price Over Volume

Summary ZTO Express remains a Buy, after my assessment of its performance and outlook. ZTO's 11% 2Q2026 EPS beat was underpinned by the avoidance of price wars and AI-driven cost reductions. Despite lowering full-year volume growth guidance to +8%, ZTO’s upward pricing adjustments, high-value business mix shift, and share repurchases support continued EPS growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

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