FWRG logo

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGS:FWRG Community·US$728.0m Market Cap
  • 3 Narratives written by author
  • 0 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 5 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

FWRG Share Price Performance

US$11.56
-4.02 (-25.80%)
US$19.45
Fair Value
US$11.56
-4.02 (-25.80%)
40.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$19.45
Fair Value
Price US$11.56
AnalystConsensusTarget US$19.45
AnalystHighTarget US$26.00
AnalystLowTarget US$15.00

FWRG Community Narratives

·
Fair Value US$19.45 40.6% undervalued intrinsic discount

Expanding Units In The Sun Belt Will Secure Future Success

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·
Fair Value US$26 55.5% undervalued intrinsic discount

Expanding Daytime Dining Footprint Will Unlock Long Runway For Breakfast And Brunch

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·
Fair Value US$15 22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

Traffic Pressures And Menu Changes Will Test Expansion Plans Yet Support Long Term Potential

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US$15
22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
13.4% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.28%
Future PE
56.89x
Price in 2029
US$21.08
US$26
55.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
14.14% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.97%
Future PE
123.58x
Price in 2029
US$35.51

Trending Discussion

Updated Narratives

FWRG logo

FWRG: Geographic Expansion And New Leadership Will Support Long Term Upside

Fair Value: US$19.45 40.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
2 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
FWRG logo

Traffic Pressures And Menu Changes Will Test Expansion Plans Yet Support Long Term Potential

Fair Value: US$15 22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
0 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
FWRG logo

Expanding Daytime Dining Footprint Will Unlock Long Runway For Breakfast And Brunch

Fair Value: US$26 55.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
0 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Proven track record with mediocre balance sheet.

1 Risk
3 Rewards

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Key Details

US$1.3b

Revenue

US$1.0b

Cost of Revenue

US$262.7m

Gross Profit

US$245.1m

Other Expenses

US$17.6m

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Mar 29, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
n/a
0.29
20.66%
1.38%
42.2%
View Full Analysis

About FWRG

Founded
1983
Employees
17500
CEO
Christopher Tomasso
WebsiteView website
www.firstwatch.com

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

Recent FWRG News & Updates

Seeking Alpha 18h

First Watch: A Long-Term Buy For Investors With The Stomach For Risk

Summary First Watch Restaurant Group is rated a Modest Buy, reflecting a balance between low current profitability and strong long-term growth potential. FWRG's aggressive expansion has driven revenue CAGR of 18.3% over three years, but operating margins compressed from 4.6% to 2.3% due to rising costs. Valuation is rich on earnings multiples (78x forward P/E), but price-to-sales is modest; the market is betting on future margin expansion. I recommend gradual accumulation via dollar-cost averaging, as near-term catalysts are lacking and margin recovery may take time. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update Jun 17

FWRG: Geographic Expansion And New Leadership Will Support Long Term Upside

Analysts have lowered their average price targets on First Watch Restaurant Group by $1 to reflect updated views on discount rates, profit margins, and long term P/E assumptions, while keeping fair value estimates broadly in line with prior levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on First Watch Restaurant Group points to generally fine tuned views rather than a major reset, with several firms trimming price targets by US$1 to US$2 while keeping overall fair value assessments broadly aligned with prior work.

Recent updates

No updates