FWRG logo

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGS:FWRG Community·US$720.0m Market Cap
  • 3 Narratives written by author
  • 0 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 5 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

FWRG Share Price Performance

US$11.35
-5.63 (-33.16%)
US$18.73
Fair Value
US$11.35
-5.63 (-33.16%)
39.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$18.73
Fair Value
Price US$11.35
AnalystConsensusTarget US$18.73
AnalystHighTarget US$26.00
AnalystLowTarget US$15.00

FWRG Community Narratives

·
Fair Value US$18.73 39.4% undervalued intrinsic discount

Expanding Units In The Sun Belt Will Secure Future Success

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·
Fair Value US$26 56.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

Expanding Daytime Dining Footprint Will Unlock Long Runway For Breakfast And Brunch

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·
Fair Value US$15 24.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

Traffic Pressures And Menu Changes Will Test Expansion Plans Yet Support Long Term Potential

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US$18.73
39.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
12.29% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.27%
Future PE
72.22x
Price in 2029
US$25.96
US$15
24.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
13.4% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.28%
Future PE
56.89x
Price in 2029
US$21.08
US$26
56.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
14.14% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.97%
Future PE
123.58x
Price in 2029
US$35.51

Trending Discussion

Updated Narratives

FWRG logo

FWRG: Unit Expansion And Marketing Investments Will Support Long Term Upside

Fair Value: US$18.73 39.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
2 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
FWRG logo

Traffic Pressures And Menu Changes Will Test Expansion Plans Yet Support Long Term Potential

Fair Value: US$15 24.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
0 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
FWRG logo

Expanding Daytime Dining Footprint Will Unlock Long Runway For Breakfast And Brunch

Fair Value: US$26 56.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
0 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Proven track record with mediocre balance sheet.

2 Risks
3 Rewards

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Key Details

US$1.3b

Revenue

US$1.0b

Cost of Revenue

US$262.7m

Gross Profit

US$245.1m

Other Expenses

US$17.6m

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Mar 29, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
n/a
0.29
20.66%
1.38%
42.2%
View Full Analysis

About FWRG

Founded
1983
Employees
17500
CEO
Christopher Tomasso
WebsiteView website
www.firstwatch.com

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

Recent FWRG News & Updates

Analysis Article May 12

First Watch Restaurant Group's (NASDAQ:FWRG) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its...
Narrative Update May 10

FWRG: Unit Expansion And Marketing Investments Will Support Long Term Upside

The analyst price target for First Watch Restaurant Group has been reduced by roughly $1. Analysts attribute this change to slightly lower revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and a small adjustment to the projected future P/E multiple, while profit margin expectations remain broadly unchanged.
Seeking Alpha May 09

First Watch Restaurant: Eggs Got Cheaper, The Stock Didn't

Summary First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. delivered positive same-store sales and margin expansion, but growth is increasingly reliant on new restaurant openings rather than organic traffic. FWRG's premium positioning is a double-edged sword amid macro headwinds, with average check growth offsetting declining traffic and mix; comps rose 2.8% despite traffic falling ~2%. Restaurant-level margins benefited from egg price deflation, but normalized margins (18–19%) are expected until organic top-line growth improves; FCF was modestly positive, with net debt at ~$229M. I maintain a Hold rating on FWRG stock, with a medium-term price target of $14–$17, as current valuation offers limited upside and macro risks could erode returns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

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