OSCR Share Price Performance
US$27.90
12.44 (80.47%)
38.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$45.34
Fair Value
Price US$27.90
qnsg US$45.34
J_Tyrader US$583.34
AnalystConsensusTarget US$24.20
Fair ValueUS$45.34
Share Pricen/a
Oscar Health, Inc. Stock Price
- 5 Narratives written by author
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- 191 Fair Values set on narratives written by author
OSCR Community Narratives
QN
Fair Value
·Fair Value US$45.34 38.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Oscar Health will leverage AI technology for future growth and revenue streams
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Fair Value
·Fair Value US$583.34 95.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
7/8/26 — Oscar Health: Trading 95.4% below Fair Value with +2070.2% Upside Potential
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AN
Fair Value
·Fair Value US$24.2 15.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
Analysts Raise Oscar Health Price Target amid Profitability Hopes and New Healthcare Initiatives
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7/8/26 — Oscar Health: Trading 95.4% below Fair Value with +2070.2% Upside Potential
Every so often, a ticker flashes on my screen that makes me stop and rub my eyes. It is the kind of numbers that look like a mistake - like you thought you were getting clothes on Christmas Day when you were but a small boy, but then your parents surprise you by hiding the PlayStation 2 you've been wanting for months behind the living room chair.Read more
J_
US$583.34
95.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
==========================================
INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NYSE:OSCR
Target Fair Value: USD 583.34
Current Stock Price: USD 26.88
Market Assessment: 95.4% Undervalued / +2070.2% Upside Potential
==========================================
1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION
* Undervaluation Formula:
(Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value
(583.34 - 26.88) / 583.34 = 0.9539 -> 95.4%
* Upside Potential Formula:
(Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price
(583.34 - 26.88) / 26.88 = 20.7016 -> +2070.2%
==========================================
2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM + SIZE)
* Formula: Risk-Free + (Beta * ERP) + Size Premium
* Currency: USD — the rate is chosen on the currency the
accounts are reported in, so cash flow and discount rate
are denominated alike.
* Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% (USD 10-year, stated)
Beta = 0.86 (regressed against ^GSPC)
raw slope +0.79, R-squared 0.02
ERP = 5.00% (USD mature + country)
Size Premium = 1.00% (market-cap band, additive)
* Calculation:
4.25% + (0.86 * 5.00%) + 1.00% = 4.25% + 4.30% + 1.00% = 9.55%
Rate used: 9.55% (inside the stated 6.5%-20.0% bounds, unclamped).
==========================================
3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE
* Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 4.38B (USD 16.4720 per share)
* Shares Outstanding: 265.90m (Market Cap 7.15B / Price 26.88)
* FCF Margin: 28.6%
* Growth Rate Fading Schedule:
- Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 5.47B
- Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50%
- Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 15.57B
- Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate)
==========================================
4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE
* Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10)
PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0955)^t ] for t = 1 to 10
PV_Cash_Flows = USD 64.25B
* Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10)
TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0955 - 0.0250)
TV_10 = [ 15.57B * 1.0250 ] / 0.0705 = USD 226.27B
* Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day
PV_TV = 226.27B / (1 + 0.0955)^10 = 226.27B / 2.4903
PV_TV = USD 90.86B
* Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share
Equity Value = 64.25B + 90.86B = USD 155.11B
Fair Value = 155.11B / 265.90m = USD 583.34
==========================================
5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK
* Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight)
* Inputs: Forward Multiple: 18.3x @ 45% Weight
Current Multiple: 19.6x @ 20% Weight
* Calculation:
(18.3 * 0.45) + (19.6 * 0.20)
= 8.237 + 3.926
= 12.163 / 0.65 = 18.713x (Rounded to 18.7x)
Oscar Health will leverage AI technology for future growth and revenue streams
Oscar Health is expanding its membership base at roughly 30% year-over-year, surpassing 2 million members, while maintaining $3.5 billion in cash reserves to absorb short-term losses and invest in growth. Its proprietary +Oscar platform differentiates the company from traditional insurers through AI-driven care navigation, predictive analytics, and telehealth integration—creating opportunities for higher-margin, recurring revenue streams in the future.Read more
Telemedicine, AI, And Demographics Will Forge A New Insurance Era
Oscar Health is betting that app-based care and smarter use of AI can cut costs and make health insurance feel easier to use, helping it grow faster than larger rivals. But the story depends on rules around government support and on keeping medical bills under control—two things that can change quickly.Read more
AN
US$39
28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
19.07% p.a.
Profit Margin
3.76%
Future PE
18.64x
Price in 2029
US$48
Analysts Raise Oscar Health Price Target amid Profitability Hopes and New Healthcare Initiatives
Oscar Health aims to turn its tech-heavy health insurance model into steady profits, but it faces a tough mix of rising medical costs and shifting rules that can quickly change who signs up. See what could lift results—like cost-cutting, smarter pricing, and expansion into employer plans—and what could derail the story if claims and regulation move the wrong way.Read more
AN
US$24.2
15.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
4.2%
Future PE
10.96x
Price in 2029
US$29.66
Rising Medical Losses And Regulatory Risks Will Erode Future Margins
Oscar Health’s fast growth could be masking a bigger problem: rising medical costs and shifting rules may make it hard to earn steady profits. See why heavy reliance on one government-backed market and tougher competition could squeeze results—even if memberships keep climbing.Read more
AN
US$13
114.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
4.3%
Future PE
7.22x
Price in 2029
US$15.93
Trending Discussion
No trending discussion available.
Recently Updated Narratives
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7/8/26 — Oscar Health: Trading 95.4% below Fair Value with +2070.2% Upside Potential
Fair Value: US$583.34 95.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
4 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
0 commentsusers have commented on this narrative
0 likesusers have liked this narrative
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Oscar Health will leverage AI technology for future growth and revenue streams
Fair Value: US$45.34 38.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
16 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
0 commentsusers have commented on this narrative
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AN
OSCR: ACA Pricing And Risk Adjustment Tailwinds Will Drive Margin Recovery
Fair Value: US$39 28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
22 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
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Snowflake Analysis
Oscar Health, Inc. Key Details
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
n/a
- -0.13
- 17.39%
- -0.30%
- 25.8%
About OSCR
- Founded
- 2012
- Employees
- 2305
- CEO
- WebsiteView website
Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. The company offers health plans to individuals, families, employees, and small group markets. It also provides +Oscar platform that power others throughout the healthcare system; Campaign Builder platform, an engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors; and reinsurance products. In addition, the company offers brokerage services and enrollment platform for brokers and consumers to shop, buy, and enroll in medical and supplemental health products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
