Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 20
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 13% to €3.96. The fair value is estimated to be €3.28, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 57%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 231% in the next 2 years. New Risk • May 15
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: €2.9m This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.1% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.4% net profit margin). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (€2.9m sold). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 05
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to €4.06. The fair value is estimated to be €3.32, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 57%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 231% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • May 03
First quarter dividend of R$0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.18. Ex-date: 14th May 2026 Payment date: 9th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 6.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (82% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (51% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 29% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 102% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Aankondiging • Apr 30
Gerdau S.A. Approves Dividend Distribution, Payable on June 9, 2026 Gerdau S.A. approved a dividend distribution of BRL 0.18 per share, equivalent to BRL 354.1 million, to be paid as of June 09, 2026. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2026 earnings released First quarter 2026 results: Revenue: R$16.7b (down 3.8% from 1Q 2025). Net income: R$1.00b (up 34% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.0% (up from 4.3% in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Aankondiging • Apr 17
Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) agreed to acquire additional 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. from Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina S.A. (BOVESPA:CLSC4) for an enterprise value of BRL 150 million. Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) agreed to acquire additional 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. from Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina S.A. (BOVESPA:CLSC4) for an enterprise value of BRL 150 million on April 16, 2026. Upon completion of the acquisition, the Company will hold a 76.97% equity interest in DFESA.
As part of the agreement, the acquisition price will be paid in cash on the closing date, using the Company's own available resources. The purchase price is subject to customary closing adjustments in accordance with the terms and conditions set forth in the definitive agreements. The transaction is also subject to the potential exercise of the proportional preemptive rights held by the other shareholders of DFESA. Additionally, closing of the transaction is subject to the satisfaction of customary conditions precedent for transactions of this nature, including approval by the Brazilian antitrust authority. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 08
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.4% to €3.46. The fair value is estimated to be €2.86, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 53%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 34% per annum over the same time period. Aankondiging • Mar 17
Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 15, 2026 Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 15, 2026. Location: to be held exclusively on, Brazil Declared Dividend • Feb 28
Fourth quarter dividend of R$0.10 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.10. Ex-date: 11th March 2026 Payment date: 18th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (89.6% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (108% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share is expected to grow by 158% over the next 3 years, which should maintain adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$0.69 (vs R$2.19 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: R$0.69 (down from R$2.19 in FY 2024). Revenue: R$69.9b (up 4.2% from FY 2024). Net income: R$1.39b (down 70% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (down from 6.8% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 01
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 17% to €3.08. The fair value is estimated to be €3.90, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 50%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.7% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Declared Dividend • Nov 03
Third quarter dividend of R$0.28 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.28. Ex-date: 11th November 2025 Payment date: 11th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (42% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (418% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 74% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Aankondiging • Nov 01
Gerdau S.A. Announces Dividend Distribution Based on Third Quarter of 2025 Results Gerdau S.A. announced Dividend distribution of BRL 0.28 per share, equivalent to BRL 555.2 million, based on third quarter of 2025 results. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$0.55 (vs R$0.64 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$0.55 (down from R$0.64 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: R$18.0b (up 3.5% from 3Q 2024). Net income: R$1.09b (down 19% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.1% (down from 7.8% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 49% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 21
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.2% to €2.50. The fair value is estimated to be €3.14, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 50%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 52% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Aug 06
Second quarter dividend of R$0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.12. Ex-date: 12th August 2025 Payment date: 18th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (40% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (48% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 67% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 01
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$0.43 (vs R$0.41 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$0.43. Revenue: R$17.5b (up 5.5% from 2Q 2024). Net income: R$856.3m (flat on 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.9% (down from 5.2% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.4% to €2.56. The fair value is estimated to be €3.23, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 50%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.3% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 55% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 07
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 21% to €2.24. The fair value is estimated to be €2.87, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 10% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 48%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 9.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 47% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • May 02
First quarter dividend of R$0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.12. Ex-date: 9th May 2025 Payment date: 19th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (41% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (34% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 44% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$0.37 (vs R$0.97 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$0.37 (down from R$0.97 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: R$17.4b (up 7.2% from 1Q 2024). Net income: R$749.5m (down 63% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.3% (down from 13% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 08
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to €2.26, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 38% over the past three years. Aankondiging • Mar 13
Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 10, 2025 Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 10, 2025. New Risk • Mar 11
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Spanish stocks, typically moving 4.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.8% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 18% to €2.70. The fair value is estimated to be €2.21, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 43%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 18% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Feb 26
Fourth quarter dividend of R$0.10 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.10. Ex-date: 6th March 2025 Payment date: 14th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (37% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 27% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: R$67.0b (down 2.7% from FY 2023). Net income: R$4.57b (down 39% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.8% (down from 11% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Aankondiging • Feb 20
Gerdau S.A. Announces Dividend Distribution to Be Paid Based on Fourth Quarter 2024 Results, Payable on March 14, 2025 Gerdau S.A. announced Dividend distribution in the amount of BRL 0.10 per share, equivalent to BRL 203.4 million, to be paid based on fourth quarter 2024 results. In 2024, Gerdau S.A. returned BRL 2.9 billion through dividends and the buyback program, achieving a return of 65.9% for shareholders. Record Date: March 05, 2025. Ex-Dividend Date: March 06, 2025. Payment Date: March 14, 2025. Aankondiging • Feb 12
Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) completed the acquisition of remaining 41.23% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. from Sumitomo Corporation (TSE:8053) and The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. (TSE:5631). Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) entered into an agreement to acquire remaining 41.23% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. from Sumitomo Corporation (TSE:8053) and The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. (TSE:5631) for $32.6 million on November 21, 2024. A cash consideration of $32.6 million will be paid by Gerdau S.A. As part of consideration, $32.6 million is paid towards common equity of Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. Upon completion, Gerdau S.A. will own 100% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A.
The transaction is subject to approval by competition authorities. The transaction is expected to complete in early 2025.
Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) completed the acquisition of remaining 41.23% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. from Sumitomo Corporation (TSE:8053) and The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. (TSE:5631) on February 10, 2025. Board Change • Feb 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Member of Board of Auditors Elvira Baracuhy Presta was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 13
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.9% to €3.22. The fair value is estimated to be €4.07, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 36%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.7% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 28
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.1% to €3.22. The fair value is estimated to be €4.03, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 36%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.2% per annum over the same time period. Aankondiging • Nov 22
Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) entered into an agreement to acquire remaining 41.23% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. from Sumitomo Corporation (TSE:8053) and The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. (TSE:5631) for $32.6 million. Gerdau S.A. (BOVESPA:GGBR4) entered into an agreement to acquire remaining 41.23% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. from Sumitomo Corporation (TSE:8053) and The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. (TSE:5631) for $32.6 million on November 21, 2024. A cash consideration of $32.6 million will be paid by Gerdau S.A. As part of consideration, $32.6 million is paid towards common equity of Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A. Upon completion, Gerdau S.A. will own 100% stake in Gerdau Summit Acos Fundidos e Forjados S.A.
The transaction is subject to approval by competition authorities. The transaction is expected to complete in early 2025. Declared Dividend • Nov 13
Third quarter dividend of R$0.30 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.30. Ex-date: 19th November 2024 Payment date: 16th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 12%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (34% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (40% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 28% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 12
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to €3.26. The fair value is estimated to be €4.12, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 36%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.7% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 1.5% per annum over the same time period. Aankondiging • Nov 07
Gerdau S.A. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 19, 2025 Gerdau S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results at 6:00 PM, E. South America Standard Time on Feb 19, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2024 earnings released Third quarter 2024 results: Revenue: R$17.4b (up 1.8% from 3Q 2023). Net income: R$1.35b (down 15% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 9.3% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Aankondiging • Nov 06
Gerdau S.A. Declares Dividend Gerdau S.A. announced Dividend distribution in the amount of BRL 0.30 per share, equivalent to BRL 619,4 million, to be paid based on 3Q24 results. New Risk • Oct 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.8% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.8% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 21
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 2.6% to €2.96. The fair value is estimated to be €3.72, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 2.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 1.4% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 28
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to €2.96. The fair value is estimated to be €3.71, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 2.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 0.8% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Aug 22
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Spanish stocks, typically moving 5.2% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (5.2% average weekly change). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.8% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 01
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: R$0.41 (vs R$1.02 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: R$0.41 (down from R$1.02 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: R$16.6b (down 9.0% from 2Q 2023). Net income: R$859.1m (down 60% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (down from 12% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • May 06
First quarter dividend of R$0.28 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.28. Ex-date: 16th May 2024 Payment date: 27th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 13%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (37% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (58% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 6.4% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 59% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 04
First quarter 2024 earnings released First quarter 2024 results: Revenue: R$16.2b (down 14% from 1Q 2023). Net income: R$2.04b (down 36% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (down from 17% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 14
Now 24% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.3% to €4.06. The fair value is estimated to be €3.28, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.8%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.3% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 22% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 27
Now 23% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.8% to €4.00. The fair value is estimated to be €3.25, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.8%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.4% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 23% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 26
Upcoming dividend of R$0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 March 2024. Payment date: 13 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 7.0%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.9%). Declared Dividend • Feb 25
Fourth quarter dividend of R$0.10 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of R$0.10. Ex-date: 4th March 2024 Payment date: 13th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 9.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (46% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 21% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 34% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 61% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$4.29 (vs R$6.53 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: R$4.29 (down from R$6.53 in FY 2022). Revenue: R$68.9b (down 16% from FY 2022). Net income: R$7.50b (down 34% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 11% (down from 14% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 25
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.9% to €4.10. The fair value is estimated to be €3.37, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 18% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 26%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.02% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 29% per annum over the same time period. Aankondiging • Jan 12
Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 16, 2024 Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 16, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 13
Upcoming dividend of R$0.47 per share at 15% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 20 November 2023. Payment date: 13 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 15%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (9.0%). Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$0.91 (vs R$1.71 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: R$0.91 (down from R$1.71 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: R$17.1b (down 19% from 3Q 2022). Net income: R$1.59b (down 47% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 9.3% (down from 14% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 14
Upcoming dividend of R$0.43 per share at 14% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 August 2023. Payment date: 29 August 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 58% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 14%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (8.5%). New Risk • Aug 10
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 12% Last year net profit margin: 19% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 26% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (117% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.9% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (12% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 10
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: Revenue: R$18.3b (down 21% from 2Q 2022). Net income: R$2.14b (down 51% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 19% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released First quarter 2023 results: Revenue: R$18.9b (down 7.2% from 1Q 2022). Net income: R$3.21b (up 9.6% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 17% (up from 14% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.1% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €4.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 189% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €3.88 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 09
Upcoming dividend of R$0.20 per share at 11% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 March 2023. Payment date: 23 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 45% and the cash payout ratio is 88%. Trailing yield: 11%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (8.2%). Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: R$6.76 (vs R$9.09 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: R$6.76 (down from R$9.09 in FY 2021). Revenue: R$82.4b (up 5.2% from FY 2021). Net income: R$11.4b (down 26% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 14% (down from 20% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to fall by 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.2% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 72% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Aankondiging • Feb 09
Gerdau S.A. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Mar 01, 2023 Gerdau S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results Pre-Market on Mar 01, 2023 Aankondiging • Jan 14
Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2023 Gerdau S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 16
Upcoming dividend of R$2.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 November 2022. Payment date: 14 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 2.5% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 10%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (8.8%). Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Director Alberto Fernandes was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 09
Upcoming dividend of R$0.71 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 August 2022. Payment date: 25 August 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 13%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (5.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (9.5%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 13
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to €4.86, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 75% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • May 10
Upcoming dividend of R$0.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 May 2022. Payment date: 25 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 11%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (8.3%). Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: R$1.72 (vs R$1.44 in 1Q 2021) First quarter 2022 results: EPS: R$1.72 (up from R$1.44 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: R$20.3b (up 24% from 1Q 2021). Net income: R$2.92b (up 19% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 1Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 7.5% compared to a 33% growth forecast for the industry in Spain. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 92% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Director Pine Brauna Pinheiro was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to €5.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €6.86 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 01
Upcoming dividend of R$0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 March 2022. Payment date: 16 March 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 12%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (5.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (8.7%). Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Full year 2021 results: EPS: R$9.12 (up from R$1.39 in FY 2020). Revenue: R$78.3b (up 79% from FY 2020). Net income: R$15.6b (up R$13.2b from FY 2020). Profit margin: 20% (up from 5.4% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 7.0% compared to a 13% growth forecast for the mining industry in Spain. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 86% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 01
Upcoming dividend of R$1.59 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 November 2021. Payment date: 16 November 2021. Trailing yield: 11%. Within top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (7.2%). Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS R$3.27 (vs R$0.46 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: R$21.3b (up 74% from 3Q 2020). Net income: R$5.58b (up R$4.79b from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 26% (up from 6.4% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 79% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 20
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to €3.82, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 17% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €3.81 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 19
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to R$4.42, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €5.32 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 10
Upcoming dividend of R$0.54 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 17 August 2021. Payment date: 26 August 2021. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Spanish dividend payers (4.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.2%). Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: R$19.1b (up 119% from 2Q 2020). Net income: R$3.92b (up R$3.60b from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 21% (up from 3.6% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS R$1.39 (vs R$0.71 in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: R$43.8b (up 11% from FY 2019). Net income: R$2.37b (up 97% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from 3.0% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 26
Revenue beats expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.2%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 19%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Spain. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 04
New 90-day high: €4.00 The company is up 19% from its price of €3.36 on 06 October 2020. The Spanish market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 24% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €3.72 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: €3.88 The company is up 14% from its price of €3.40 on 18 September 2020. The Spanish market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 19% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €3.66 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 24
New 90-day high: €3.54 The company is up 20% from its price of €2.96 on 26 August 2020. The Spanish market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €2.37 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of R$1.42b, down 4.5% from the prior year. Total revenue was R$39.7b over the last 12 months, down 3.1% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 01
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue beats expectations Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.4% at R$12.2b. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% over the next year, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Spain. 