We Think GWA Group (ASX:GWA) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, ‘Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.’ When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies GWA Group Limited (ASX:GWA) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can’t fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for GWA Group

How Much Debt Does GWA Group Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that GWA Group had AU$178.3m in debt in June 2020; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of AU$32.4m, its net debt is less, at about AU$146.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:GWA Debt to Equity History September 16th 2020

How Strong Is GWA Group’s Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that GWA Group had liabilities of AU$98.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of AU$323.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$32.4m and AU$56.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling AU$332.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn’t so bad because GWA Group is worth AU$683.6m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.9, GWA Group uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 8.4 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. Sadly, GWA Group’s EBIT actually dropped 9.6% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if GWA Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, GWA Group recorded free cash flow worth 62% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Even if we have reservations about how easily GWA Group is capable of (not) growing its EBIT, its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow make us think feel relatively unconcerned. We think that GWA Group’s debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with GWA Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you’re the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don’t hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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