The Archer Exploration (ASX:AXE) Share Price Is Up 71% And Shareholders Are Holding On

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at Archer Exploration Limited (ASX:AXE), which is up 71%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 22% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven’t been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 54%.

See our latest analysis for Archer Exploration

Archer Exploration recorded just AU$158,067 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn’t really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Archer Exploration will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.

As a general rule, if a company doesn’t have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Some Archer Exploration investors have already had a taste of the sweet taste stocks like this can leave in the mouth, as they gain popularity and attract speculative capital.

When it reported in December 2018 Archer Exploration had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities consider its expenditure: just AU$1.1m to be specific. So if it hasn’t remedied the situation already, it will almost certainly have to raise more capital soon. Given how low on cash the it got, investors must really like its potential for the share price to be up 113% per year, over 3 years . The image below shows how Archer Exploration’s balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.

ASX:AXE Historical Debt, September 17th 2019
ASX:AXE Historical Debt, September 17th 2019

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. However you can take a look at whether insiders have been buying up shares. It’s usually a positive if they have, as it may indicate they see value in the stock. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).

A Different Perspective

It’s good to see that Archer Exploration has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 54% in the last twelve months. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 8.5% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. Before spending more time on Archer Exploration it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.