Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Northern Trust’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What’s the opportunity in Northern Trust?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 3.0% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Northern Trust today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $107.32, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Northern Trust’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What does the future of Northern Trust look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of Northern Trust, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -9.9%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, NTRS appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on NTRS for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on NTRS should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Northern Trust. You can find everything you need to know about Northern Trust in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Northern Trust, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.