Shangri-La Asia Limited (HKG:69) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last month. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 50% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Although the share price is down over three years, Shangri-La Asia actually managed to grow EPS by 13% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 8.0% annual rate, so that doesn’t seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Shangri-La Asia more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Shangri-La Asia stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there’s a difference between Shangri-La Asia’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Shangri-La Asia’s TSR, which was a 48% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Shangri-La Asia shareholders are down 20% for the year, but the market itself is up 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.0% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Shangri-La Asia better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Shangri-La Asia is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…
Shangri-La Asia is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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