Polman S.A. (WSE:PLM) shares have had a horrible month, losing 29% after a relatively good period beforehand. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 254%.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, Polman’s price-to-earnings (or “P/E”) ratio of 14.8x might still make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Poland, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E’s below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it’s justified.
For example, consider that Polman’s financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as earnings growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.free report on Polman’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is Polman’s Growth Trending?
There’s an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Polman’s to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company’s bottom line as the year before. That’s essentially a continuation of what we’ve seen over the last three years, as its EPS growth has been virtually non-existent for that entire period. Therefore, it’s fair to say that earnings growth has definitely eluded the company recently.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 3.6% growth in the next 12 months, the company’s momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
With this information, we find it concerning that Polman is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren’t willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Polman’s P/E
Despite the recent share price weakness, Polman’s P/E remains higher than most other companies. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn’t be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it’s quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Polman revealed its three-year earnings trends aren’t impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it’s very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Polman is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit concerning.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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