Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that NV Bekaert SA (EBR:BEKB) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for NV Bekaert
What Is NV Bekaert's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2020 NV Bekaert had debt of €1.77b, up from €1.65b in one year. On the flip side, it has €887.3m in cash leading to net debt of about €881.9m.
A Look At NV Bekaert's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, NV Bekaert had liabilities of €1.91b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €990.7m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had €887.3m in cash and €740.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €1.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €976.8m, we think shareholders really should watch NV Bekaert's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
NV Bekaert has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.5 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Unfortunately, NV Bekaert saw its EBIT slide 6.3% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine NV Bekaert's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, NV Bekaert generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 91% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say NV Bekaert's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making NV Bekaert stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for NV Bekaert that you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About ENXTBR:BEKB
NV Bekaert
Provides steel wire transformation and coating technologies worldwide.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.
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