Is Mold-Tek Packaging (NSE:MOLDTKPAC) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (NSE:MOLDTKPAC) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Mold-Tek Packaging

What Is Mold-Tek Packaging's Debt?

As you can see below, Mold-Tek Packaging had ₹1.07b of debt, at March 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has ₹42.2m in cash leading to net debt of about ₹1.02b.

How Strong Is Mold-Tek Packaging's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Mold-Tek Packaging had liabilities of ₹1.26b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹395.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹42.2m as well as receivables valued at ₹604.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹1.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Since publicly traded Mold-Tek Packaging shares are worth a total of ₹8.09b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Mold-Tek Packaging's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.5 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.7 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Unfortunately, Mold-Tek Packaging's EBIT flopped 13% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Mold-Tek Packaging can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Mold-Tek Packaging actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

To be frank both Mold-Tek Packaging's EBIT growth rate and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Mold-Tek Packaging's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Mold-Tek Packaging that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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