Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG)?

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG), which is in the packaging business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$114 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$102. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Packaging Corporation of America’s current trading price of US$106 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Packaging Corporation of America’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Packaging Corporation of America

What is Packaging Corporation of America worth?

According to my valuation model, Packaging Corporation of America seems to be fairly priced at around 5.18% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Packaging Corporation of America today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $100.75, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Packaging Corporation of America’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Packaging Corporation of America look like?

NYSE:PKG Past and Future Earnings, January 7th 2020
NYSE:PKG Past and Future Earnings, January 7th 2020

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of Packaging Corporation of America, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -13%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? PKG seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PKG for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on PKG should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Packaging Corporation of America. You can find everything you need to know about Packaging Corporation of America in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Packaging Corporation of America, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.