Even when a business is losing money, it’s possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
So should Hemcheck Sweden (STO:HEMC) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company’s annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the ‘cash burn’. Let’s start with an examination of the business’s cash, relative to its cash burn.
Does Hemcheck Sweden Have A Long Cash Runway?
You can calculate a company’s cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. Hemcheck Sweden has such a small amount of debt that we’ll set it aside, and focus on the kr15m in cash it held at March 2020. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through kr15m. Therefore, from March 2020 it had roughly 12 months of cash runway. To be frank, this kind of short runway puts us on edge, as it indicates the company must reduce its cash burn significantly, or else raise cash imminently. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
How Is Hemcheck Sweden’s Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Whilst it’s great to see that Hemcheck Sweden has already begun generating revenue from operations, last year it only produced kr4.7m, so we don’t think it is generating significant revenue, at this point. As a result, we think it’s a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we’ll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. With the cash burn rate up 18% in the last year, it seems that the company is ratcheting up investment in the business over time. However, the company’s true cash runway will therefore be shorter than suggested above, if spending continues to increase. Hemcheck Sweden makes us a little nervous due to its lack of substantial operating revenue. We prefer most of the stocks on this list of stocks that analysts expect to grow.
Can Hemcheck Sweden Raise More Cash Easily?
Given its cash burn trajectory, Hemcheck Sweden shareholders should already be thinking about how easy it might be for it to raise further cash in the future. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash to drive growth. By comparing a company’s annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).
Hemcheck Sweden has a market capitalisation of kr66m and burnt through kr15m last year, which is 23% of the company’s market value. That’s not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year’s growth at the current share price, you’d likely witness fairly costly dilution.
How Risky Is Hemcheck Sweden’s Cash Burn Situation?
We must admit that we don’t think Hemcheck Sweden is in a very strong position, when it comes to its cash burn. While its cash runway wasn’t too bad, its increasing cash burn does leave us rather nervous. Looking at the factors mentioned in this short report, we do think that its cash burn is a bit risky, and it does make us slightly nervous about the stock. On another note, Hemcheck Sweden has 5 warning signs (and 4 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies insiders are buying, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.