Is Chevron (NYSE:CVX) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, ‘The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about… and every practical investor I know worries about. So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can’t fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company’s use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Chevron

What Is Chevron’s Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Chevron had debt of US$26.7b at the end of December 2019, a reduction from US$34.3b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$5.75b, its net debt is less, at about US$20.9b.

NYSE:CVX Historical Debt, February 28th 2020
NYSE:CVX Historical Debt, February 28th 2020

How Healthy Is Chevron’s Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Chevron had liabilities of US$26.5b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$65.7b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$5.75b in cash and US$13.3b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$73.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Chevron has a very large market capitalization of US$184.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Chevron has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.72. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 13.1 times the size. So we’re pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Chevron if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 28% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Chevron’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Chevron actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

Based on what we’ve seen Chevron is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. Considering this range of data points, we think Chevron is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Chevron you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don’t even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.