Stock Analysis

Introducing MACA (ASX:MLD), The Stock That Dropped 48% In The Last Three Years

MACA Limited (ASX:MLD) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 69% in the last quarter. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 48% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for MACA

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, MACA's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 9.1% each year. The share price decline of 19% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 9.42.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

ASX:MLD Past and Future Earnings June 22nd 2020
ASX:MLD Past and Future Earnings June 22nd 2020

We know that MACA has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

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What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, MACA's TSR for the last 3 years was -40%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that MACA shares lost 2.4% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 7.4%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 9.6% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand MACA better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that MACA is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.