The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you’re going to end up with some losing stocks. But long term Experience Co Limited (ASX:EXP) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. So they might be feeling emotional about the 62% share price collapse, in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 23% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 16% in the last 90 days.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the three years that the share price declined, Experience Co’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it’s hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But it’s safe to say we’d generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Experience Co’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there’s a difference between Experience Co’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Experience Co’s TSR of was a loss of 59% for the 3 years. That wasn’t as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
Over the last year, Experience Co shareholders took a loss of 23%. In contrast the market gained about 24%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. However, the loss over the last year isn’t as bad as the 26% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We’d need clear signs of growth in the underlying business before we could muster much enthusiasm for this one. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Experience Co you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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