Stock Analysis

Introducing Burberry Group (LON:BRBY), A Stock That Climbed 29% In The Last Three Years

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Burberry Group plc (LON:BRBY) shareholders have seen the share price rise 29% over three years, well in excess of the market return (6.9%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 20% in the last year , including dividends .

View our latest analysis for Burberry Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Burberry Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 14% per year. The average annual share price increase of 8.9% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:BRBY Past and Future Earnings, January 23rd 2020
LSE:BRBY Past and Future Earnings, January 23rd 2020

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Burberry Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Burberry Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 38%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Burberry Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 20% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 6.3% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

About LSE:BRBY

Burberry Group

Engages in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale of luxury goods under the Burberry brand in the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Americas.

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.

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