National General Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:NGHC) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what top analysts think of the company following this report. Revenues were US$5.2b, with National General Holdings reporting some -7.5% below analyst expectations. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on National General Holdings after the latest results.
After the latest results, the two analysts covering National General Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$5.90b in 2020. If met, this would reflect a solid 15% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest earnings, analysts were forecasting revenues of US$6.07b in 2020, and did not provide an EPS estimate. It looks like analysts have become a bit less bullish on National General Holdings, given the revenue estimates after the latest results.
There’s been no real change to the consensus price target of US$29.67, with National General Holdingsseemingly executing in line with expectations.
It can be useful to take a broader overview by seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the National General Holdings’s past performance and to peers in the same market. We would highlight that National General Holdings’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 15% increase next year well below the historical 18%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.9% next year. So it’s pretty clear that, while National General Holdings’s revenue growth is expected to slow, it’s still expected to grow faster than the market itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is the bullish forecast for profits next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts’ estimated valuations.
We have estimates for National General Holdings from its two analysts , and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether National General Holdings’s debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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