Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Emami Realty Limited (NSE:EMAMIREAL) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Emami Realty
How Much Debt Does Emami Realty Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2020 Emami Realty had ₹27.6b of debt, an increase on ₹25.6b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹902.1m, its net debt is less, at about ₹26.7b.
How Strong Is Emami Realty's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Emami Realty had liabilities of ₹20.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹8.31b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹902.1m and ₹12.9b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹15.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹1.60b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Emami Realty would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Emami Realty shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (174.0), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.035 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Emami Realty saw its EBIT tank 91% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Emami Realty's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Emami Realty recorded free cash flow worth 62% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
To be frank both Emami Realty's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Emami Realty has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Emami Realty (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About NSEI:EMAMIREAL
Moderate and slightly overvalued.