Did Changing Sentiment Drive Mondi’s (LON:MNDI) Share Price Down By 25%?

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Mondi plc (LON:MNDI) shareholders, since the share price is down 25% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 5.6%. On the other hand, we note it’s up 9.6% in about a month. However, this may be a matter of broader market optimism, since stocks are up 6.5% in the same time.

See our latest analysis for Mondi

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, Mondi actually managed to grow EPS by 8.3% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn’t explain the share price drop. It’s good to see that Mondi has increased its revenue over the last three years. But it’s not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:MNDI Income Statement May 28th 2020
LSE:MNDI Income Statement May 28th 2020

Mondi is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Mondi, it has a TSR of -15% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it’s never nice to take a loss, Mondi shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends, their trailing twelve month loss of 6.8% wasn’t as bad as the market loss of around 8.0%. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 4.9%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Mondi better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for Mondi that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Mondi better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.