A Look At The Fair Value Of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:BPCL)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:BPCL) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Bharat Petroleum

The calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹38.5b ₹37.4b ₹60.2b ₹64.8b ₹69.5b ₹74.4b ₹79.5b ₹84.9b ₹90.5b ₹96.5b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Est @ 7.65% Est @ 7.3% Est @ 7.05% Est @ 6.88% Est @ 6.76% Est @ 6.68% Est @ 6.62%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15% ₹33.5k ₹28.3k ₹39.5k ₹37.0k ₹34.5k ₹32.2k ₹29.9k ₹27.7k ₹25.7k ₹23.9k

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹312b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (6.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹97b× (1 + 6.5%) ÷ 15%– 6.5%) = ₹1.2t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹1.2t÷ ( 1 + 15%)10= ₹298b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹610b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹269, the company appears about fair value at a 4.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

NSEI:BPCL Intrinsic value, March 24th 2020
NSEI:BPCL Intrinsic value, March 24th 2020

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bharat Petroleum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.085. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Bharat Petroleum, We’ve put together three pertinent aspects you should further examine:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Bharat Petroleum is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…
  2. Future Earnings: How does BPCL’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every IN stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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