Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.37%

YOU: Margin Expansion And Dividend Progress Will Drive Shares Higher

The analyst price target for YouGov has been revised modestly lower to approximately £4.54 from about £4.52, as analysts factor in slightly weaker revenue growth expectations, partially offset by marginally improved profit margins and valuation assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent revisions from Street research underscore a more cautious stance on YouGov's near term performance, even as the long term opportunity in data driven research and analytics remains intact.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to see upside potential versus the current share price, with lowered price targets still implying a meaningful premium based on normalized earnings power.
The maintenance of Buy ratings signals confidence in YouGov's ability to execute on its strategy, particularly around scaling its data products and improving operating leverage over time.
Supportive views highlight the resilience of the core research platform and recurring revenue streams, which are seen as underappreciated in current valuation multiples.
Some bullish analysts view the reset in expectations as creating a cleaner base for future upgrades if growth and margin trends stabilize or modestly improve.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to lowered price targets as evidence that prior growth and profitability assumptions were too optimistic, warranting a more conservative valuation framework.
The presence of Neutral ratings, including from JPMorgan, reflects concern that near term execution risks and softer growth could cap upside until clearer reacceleration is visible.
Margin improvement is viewed as vulnerable to ongoing investment needs in technology and sales, which could delay the timeline for achieving higher returns on capital.
Some cautious views suggest that competitive intensity and macro driven budget scrutiny among clients may constrain YouGov's ability to sustain premium growth rates, which in turn is used to justify a reduced target price range.

What's in the News

YouGov plc recommended a dividend of 9.25 pence per share, to be paid on 9 December 2025 to shareholders on the register as at 28 November 2025, subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting on 4 December 2025 (company announcement).
At its Annual General Meeting on 4 December 2025, YouGov plc approved a dividend of 9.25 pence per share, confirming payment on 9 December 2025 to shareholders on the register at 28 November 2025 (AGM resolution).
YouGov plc issued guidance for fiscal year 2026, indicating it expects modest revenue progress while absorbing the impact of incremental investment across the group (guidance statement).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately £4.54 from about £4.52, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
The discount rate has increased marginally to around 7.91 percent from roughly 7.84 percent, indicating a slightly higher assumed risk profile or required return.
Revenue growth has edged lower to about 2.87 percent from approximately 3.02 percent, signposting a small downward revision to top line expectations.
The net profit margin has improved modestly to roughly 7.67 percent from about 7.63 percent, incorporating slightly stronger profitability assumptions.
The future P/E multiple has ticked up slightly to around 20.7x from roughly 20.6x, suggesting a small uplift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Commitment to SP3 strategy and AI enhancements suggest potential revenue growth and improved product offerings through technology and automation.
Cost optimization and expansion into new regions indicate improved financial performance and market diversification potential.
Flat growth, missed opportunities, and macroeconomic uncertainties threaten revenue, margins, and investor confidence amid rising costs and structural challenges in key sectors.

Catalysts

About YouGov

Provides online market research services in the United Kingdom, the Americas, the Middle East, Mainland Europe, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company's commitment to refocusing on its SP3 strategy as a data product-centered platform suggests potential for future revenue growth by leveraging technology and automation, which could enhance product offerings and market reach.
Cost optimization plans aiming for £20 million in savings, with 70% expected to be realized within the year, indicate potential for improved net margins, contributing to better financial performance.
Expansion into new regions such as Scandinavia and plans to extend CPS data collection beyond Europe, including potential future U.S. expansion, suggests potential revenue growth through market diversification.
AI enhancements to data products, incorporating insights from the company's acquisition of AI company Yabble, could increase the appeal and utility of offerings, positively impacting revenue growth.
A renewed focus on building dedicated sales teams for data products aims to increase new sales and renewal rates, potentially boosting earnings and cash flow.

YouGov Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming YouGov's revenue will grow by 4.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 0.3% today to 11.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach £51.4 million (and earnings per share of £0.32) by about September 2028, up from £1.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 421.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Media industry at 12.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.77% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

YouGov Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company experienced flat growth over the years and missed some opportunities, which could impact future revenue growth and investor confidence.
There have been higher staff costs in the first half and challenges with third-party data purchasing, which have impacted the company's gross margins.
The CPS integration has been limited, with a reliance on transfer service agreements that may contribute to inconsistent cash flow and net margins.
Significant changes in key sectors such as e-sports and gaming result in structural challenges, potentially impacting future revenue potential.
There are macroeconomic uncertainties in key markets, particularly in Switzerland and the Nordics, which may create headwinds against revenue growth and overall financial performance.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of £5.808 for YouGov based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of £7.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just £3.4.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be £433.3 million, earnings will come to £51.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.8%.
Given the current share price of £3.6, the analyst price target of £5.81 is 38.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Focus On Efficiency And Regional Expansion Will Shape Medium-Term Outlook