Last Update 31 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 2.69%

Analysts have increased their price target for BlackRock, raising it from approximately $1,300 to $1,334. They cite strong Q3 results, robust inflows, improved earnings estimates, and confidence in the firm's long-term growth opportunities.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research highlights a strong consensus among analysts regarding BlackRock's favorable outlook. Several firms have raised their price targets and underscored the company's robust Q3 performance, ongoing strategic initiatives, and sector leadership. Below, key bullish and bearish perspectives are summarized.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are raising price targets, citing solid Q3 results, significant net inflows, and successful execution of strategic acquisitions. These moves have enhanced fee revenue and asset growth.
BlackRock's control of power assets and participation in landmark deals, such as the acquisition of Aligned Data Centers, are viewed as strengthening its position within the rapidly growing AI and infrastructure sector. This is seen as potentially benefiting the entire industry and affirming the value in companies with extensive power portfolios.
Upgrades to consensus long-term organic growth assumptions and forward guidance on key performance metrics point to strong visibility into sustainable earnings power. These factors also contribute to expectations of widening valuation multiples for BlackRock compared to peers.
Bullish analysts emphasize the firm’s diversified product offering, particularly strong performance in ETFs, private markets, and global equities. These areas are driving robust asset inflows and supporting premium valuation levels.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts note that while BlackRock continues to deliver strong execution, the broader sector may face challenges from rapid changes in market demand for power, land, and critical supply components. This could lead to future constraints on expansion.
Some voices highlight the risk of occasional disruptions or "hiccups" in long-term growth from competitive pressures, integration of acquisitions, or volatility across global markets.
There are concerns that future outperformance depends on maintaining strong momentum in both traditional and alternative asset management. This performance could be tested during periods of heightened market uncertainty or regulatory changes.

What's in the News

BlackRock, along with other private credit lenders, is seeking to recover more than $500 million, alleging fraud by Bankim Brahmbhatt and fabrication of loan collateral accounts receivable (Wall Street Journal).
BlackRock is part of an investment consortium, including Nvidia and Microsoft, that has agreed to acquire Aligned Data Centers in a $40 billion deal. This marks one of the industry’s largest acquisitions (Financial Times).
BlackRock ETFs participated as some of the largest investors in a $3 billion Hyperion bond deal, supporting a major data center operation backed by Blue Owl Capital and Meta (Wall Street Journal).
BlackRock announced a strategic update to its Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund, enhancing liquidity, introducing new assets, and supporting stablecoin distribution channels as digital assets evolve (Company announcement).
Deutsche Bank increased its price target for BlackRock to $1,320, citing strong Q3 results and the firm’s multiple avenues for future organic growth (Deutsche Bank).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Increased from $1,299.50 to $1,334.47. This reflects a modest upward revision in analysts' valuation models.
Discount Rate: Edged slightly higher, moving from 8.25% to 8.26%. This indicates a minor adjustment to perceived risk.
Revenue Growth: Improved marginally from 11.02% to 11.11%. This suggests slightly stronger growth expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Declined fractionally from 31.68% to 31.62%. This signals a small decrease in projected profitability.
Future P/E: Rose modestly from 25.75x to 26.44x. This points to higher forward valuation multiples.

Strategic acquisitions and emerging market expansion position BlackRock to benefit from rising demand for alternatives and global wealth growth.
Technology integration and core product innovation support client retention, recurring revenues, and resilience against margin pressures.
Intensifying margin pressure, increased private market and tech risks, regulatory headwinds, and potential EPS dilution could hinder sustained growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About BlackRock

A privately owned investment manager.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

BlackRock's expansion into private markets through acquisitions like HPS Investment Partners, GIP, and ElmTree positions the company to capitalize on the secular shift of institutional assets into alternatives and infrastructure, driving higher-fee revenue streams and long-term earnings growth.
The company's global platform and targeted expansion in emerging markets (e.g., India and Middle East) align with the continued growth in global wealth and the investable asset base, supporting AUM growth and future fee accretion as capital markets and retirement systems develop in these regions.
BlackRock's deepening integration of technology-via Aladdin, Preqin, and eFront-responds to increasing demand for analytics and transparency, strengthening client retention and cross-sell opportunities, which should support recurring revenue growth and margin resilience.
Leadership in retirement and the proliferation of public-private target date funds positions BlackRock to benefit from long-term demographic trends and regulatory changes that drive greater inclusion of private assets in defined contribution plans, supporting durable AUM inflows and higher-margin product offerings.
Sustained innovation and record flows in core products like fixed income and digital asset ETFs-particularly in under-penetrated regions such as Europe-support continued organic revenue growth, while fee compression is partially offset by scale efficiencies and product diversification.

BlackRock Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BlackRock's revenue will grow by 9.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 29.7% today to 31.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $8.9 billion (and earnings per share of $57.82) by about September 2028, up from $6.4 billion today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 26.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BlackRock Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent industry-wide fee compression, especially in ETFs and passive products (where BlackRock is a leader), continues to pressure net margins as evidenced by a 0.4 basis point decline in the effective fee rate and commentary about lower performance fees impacting operating margins; this trend could erode revenue growth even amidst record AUM.
Ongoing expansion into private markets (GIP, HPS, Preqin, ElmTree) introduces elevated integration, execution, and operational risks (including higher G&A and compensation) at a time when margins are already down year-over-year; failure to realize expected synergies or manage increased expenses could squeeze overall earnings and profitability.
Structural regulatory and litigation risks remain significant for BlackRock's core ambitions, especially as the company looks to innovate with private allocations in retirement products (i.e., required reform in advice/litigation for U.S. DC plans); heightened regulatory scrutiny or adverse legal developments could impede adoption, limit product launches, and negatively impact potential revenues.
Technology investments such as Aladdin, Preqin, and tokenization initiatives bring higher near-term spend and increase exposure to cyber, obsolescence, and operational failures; should these platforms fail to maintain industry leadership or become subject to costly disruptions, BlackRock's subscription and technology revenue-and client stickiness-could deteriorate.
Increased share issuance related to acquisitions (e.g., up to 13.8 million new shares possible with SubCo units and RSUs) and higher compensation ratios associated with performance-related pay raise the risk of EPS dilution for shareholders and may offset the benefits of rising operating income, putting pressure on long-term per-share earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $1167.2 for BlackRock based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $1252.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1000.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $28.7 billion, earnings will come to $8.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
Given the current share price of $1105.67, the analyst price target of $1167.2 is 5.3% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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