CDE: Sustained Exploration Spending Will Drive Near-Term Resource Expansion

Analysts have trimmed Coeur Mining's fair value estimate to approximately $20.86 from $21.67 per share. Recent research notes acknowledge the company’s strong rally and execution, but highlight a more cautious outlook as shares are now seen as fully valued.

Analyst Commentary

Recent street research provides a mixed outlook on Coeur Mining, reflecting both strengths in execution and growth, as well as emerging valuation concerns following a substantial share price rally.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts recognize Coeur Mining's diversified portfolio, including four mines with lower jurisdictional risk and significant production of silver and gold.
The company's aggressive exploration budget is viewed as a positive driver for extending reserve life and supporting long-term growth.
Target multiples have been increased in response to improved financial performance, particularly following strong quarterly results.
Ongoing growth initiatives keep the company's outlook attractive. Some analysts are maintaining an Outperform rating despite a slight reduction in price targets.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are cautious after the stock's more than 200% rally year-to-date. They consider shares to be fully and fairly valued at current levels.
Several price targets have been lowered or only modestly increased. This reflects a more conservative valuation approach even as operational performance impresses.
Recent downgrades from a Buy stance to Hold or Market Perform signal a shift in sentiment, as upside potential is seen to be limited moving forward.
The focus on valuation rather than further momentum suggests that future gains may depend more on continued operational delivery than market re-rating.

What's in the News

Cœur Mining completed the repurchase of 668,200 shares for $7.33 million under its ongoing buyback program. The most recent tranche covered July through September 2025. (Company announcement)
The company reported strong third quarter 2025 unaudited production results, with gold output rising to 111,364 ounces and silver production increasing to 4.8 million ounces compared to the previous year. (Company announcement)
Updated full year 2025 corporate guidance increased the expected midpoint for gold production by 1% to 415,250 ounces. The midpoint for silver production was reduced by 2% to 18.1 million ounces. (Company guidance)
Exploration updates highlighted significant intercepts and resource growth at the Las Chispas and Kensington mines. These included high-grade discoveries and expanded drilling programs targeting further expansion. (Company update)

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly, moving from $21.67 to $20.86 per share.
The Discount Rate has risen modestly, increasing from 7.59% to 8.06%.
Revenue Growth assumptions have increased, with projections rising from 14.44% to 15.86%.
The Net Profit Margin forecast has declined, dropping from 38.22% to 36.70%.
The estimate for the future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has edged lower, moving from 21.77x to 21.31x.

Rising industrial and investor demand for silver and gold, along with operational improvements, position the company for strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
Exploration and asset integration efforts are set to extend mine life and underpin stable long-term production.
Greater regulatory, operational, and financial risks may constrain growth, pressure margins, and jeopardize long-term profitability and cash flow stability.

Catalysts

About Coeur Mining

Operates as a gold and silver producer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The company is set to benefit from anticipated sustained demand growth for silver, underpinning future topline revenue expansion, as global electrification and clean energy adoption drive higher usage of silver in solar panels, batteries, and EVs.
Persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to bolster investor demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, which could lead to higher realized prices and expanded net margins for Coeur.
The successful ramp-up and integration of the Rochester expansion and Las Chispas asset are driving significant increases in silver and gold production, positioning Coeur for robust revenue and earnings growth in the near to medium term.
Strengthened operational efficiencies-reflected in declining cost applicable to sales per ounce and process improvements at key mines-are improving operating leverage and could further support margin expansion and cash generation.
Aggressive brownfield exploration and land package expansion at existing sites are likely to extend mine life and expand reserves, supporting sustained long-term production and reducing future earnings volatility.

Coeur Mining Earnings and Revenue Growth

Coeur Mining Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Coeur Mining's revenue will grow by 12.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.1% today to 32.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $676.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.69) by about September 2028, up from $190.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.1 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $485 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 47.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 22.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.37%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Coeur Mining Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Expectations for higher regulatory and permitting hurdles, especially highlighted by the multi-year Silvertip development process and emphasis on not cutting corners, may extend lead times for new asset development and expansion, potentially delaying growth projects and revenue realization.
The company's reliance on existing reserves and need for ongoing infill and expansion drilling to maintain or extend mine life, especially at Las Chispas and other key assets, presents a risk of production declines should exploration fail to replace depletion, which could negatively impact long-term revenue and earnings stability.
Exposure to currency fluctuations (e.g., significant impact of the strong Mexican peso on costs and taxation) introduces cost volatility and could erode net margins if adverse foreign exchange moves persist.
Coeur's high capital intensity, as seen in substantial investments at Rochester and Las Chispas as well as legacy acquisition-related amortization and deferred tax liabilities, may pressure cash flows and lead to higher non-cash expenses, reducing reported net income over time.
Regional and jurisdictional risks, including potential resource nationalism, changing tax regimes, and environmental permitting delays in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, could increase operating costs, cause project delays, or disrupt production, all of which would impact long-term profitability and cash flow.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $13.083 for Coeur Mining based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $14.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $12.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.1 billion, earnings will come to $676.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
Given the current share price of $13.97, the analyst price target of $13.08 is 6.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CDE: Expanded Exploration And Production Will Drive Future Share Performance