Last Update11 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 0.52%

Intel’s consensus analyst price target saw a marginal uptick to $22.18 as modest improvements in data center and AI server sentiment outweighed ongoing concerns about foundry economics, competitive positioning, and the implications of government funding.

Analyst Commentary

Bearish analysts highlight ongoing concerns around Intel's foundry model, noting that without sufficient internal product volume, the company may struggle to cover fixed costs.
Bearish analysts are cautious on near-term competitive positioning, citing continued manufacturing delays and falling behind TSMC and AMD in advanced nodes, with Intel product competitiveness under pressure.
There is skepticism around the value of large government investments, such as trading $10.9B in CHIPS Act funding for a U.S. government stake, which could impair flexibility and is viewed as an unfavorable equity-for-cash swap.
Bullish analysts note a modest improvement in data center and AI server sentiment, which has led to slight upward estimate revisions and incremental valuation increases after recent market sell-offs.
Continued pressure from rivals, with AMD maintaining a notable average selling price premium (17% in PCs, 64% in servers), highlighting persistent competitive headwinds for Intel's core segments.

What's in the News

The U.S. government is set to take a 10% equity stake in Intel by converting ~$8.9B in CHIPS Act grants, tying Intel's hands regarding the sale or spin-off of its foundry business and making the government Intel's largest shareholder (Bloomberg, Financial Times, CNBC).
President Trump plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports from firms not moving production to the U.S., putting pressure on companies like Intel to increase domestic manufacturing (Reuters, Bloomberg).
Intel has faced internal turmoil, including the board blocking CEO Lip-Bu Tan's capital-raising and AI M&A efforts, Trump demanding Tan's ouster over China ties, and U.S. lawmakers questioning the CEO's relationships with Chinese companies (Wall Street Journal, Reuters).
Intel is pursuing further cost reduction measures with up to 20% cuts in factory workers, shuttering its automotive and Network & Edge businesses, and significant turnover among senior executives (The Oregonian, CRN, Reuters).
Leaked documents revealed U.S. firms, including Intel, helped design and build China's digital surveillance state, raising reputational and compliance risks amid increased government scrutiny of U.S.-China tech collaboration (Associated Press).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for Intel

The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $22.06 to $22.18.
The Future P/E for Intel remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 27.39x to 27.53x.
The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Intel remained effectively unchanged, at 3.1% per annum.

Flattening its structure and refocusing its portfolio might improve agility, profitability, and innovation, boosting future revenue and competitive advantage.
Strategic AI focus and foundry service enhancement could increase market share and revenue through growth in emerging markets and strengthened customer trust.
Organizational complexity and slow AI adaptation hinder innovation and scaling, risking competitive positioning and future revenue growth amid economic uncertainties.

Catalysts

About Intel

Designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells computing and related products and services worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Intel is focusing on flattening its organizational structure to enhance agility, make swifter decisions, and foster innovation, which could lead to improved product development and competitive advantage, positively impacting future revenue and earnings growth.
By refocusing its portfolio and eliminating non-core distractions, Intel aims to decrease operating expenses and streamline operations, potentially leading to improved profitability and net margins in upcoming years.
The strategic push toward developing best-in-class products for new and emerging AI workloads, along with refining their AI strategy, positions Intel to capture growth in an expanding market, likely boosting future revenue and market share.
Intel plans to strengthen customer trust in its foundry services by ensuring reliability and customer service, potentially leading to an increase in foundry revenue as the company builds its reputation and customer base.
Intel's efforts to optimize manufacturing processes and leverage existing assets without immediately expanding capacity could result in reduced capital expenditures and better asset utilization, positively affecting both future cash flow and returns on investment.

Intel Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Intel's revenue will grow by 3.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -38.6% today to 8.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $5.2 billion (and earnings per share of $1.21) by about September 2028, up from $-20.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-2.7 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -5.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Semiconductor industry at 33.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.48% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Intel Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Organizational complexity and bureaucratic silos are hindering innovation and agility, which could adversely affect product development and revenue growth.
The need to significantly reduce OpEx and CapEx indicates financial strain, which may impact net margins and future earnings if not managed effectively.
The potential economic slowdown, exacerbated by tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic pressures, poses a risk to customer demand and future revenues.
Intel's AI strategy and adaptation to emerging workloads require significant transformation, and slow execution in this area could impact competitive positioning and revenue prospects.
Capacity constraints and reliance on older product lines suggest challenges in manufacturing scalability, impacting gross margins and revenue growth potential.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $22.061 for Intel based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $28.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $58.1 billion, earnings will come to $5.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.0%.
Given the current share price of $24.44, the analyst price target of $22.06 is 10.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.