Last Update 09 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 7.11%

NTLA: Nex Z Return To Clinic Will Offset ATTR Safety Overhang

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Intellia Therapeutics by about $1.58 per share, supported by recent price target increases from firms citing potential value from a nex-z return to clinic, even as others trim or withdraw targets on safety concerns and a higher assumed future P/E of about 45.5x.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Intellia Therapeutics reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on potential value creation from a nex z return to clinic and others centering on safety concerns and a narrower path to upside. Here is how those opinions break down.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see a nex z return to clinic as a meaningful potential value driver, arguing that reactivation of the program could support higher fair value assumptions despite recent volatility.
Some price targets have been lifted, including moves to levels such as US$7 and US$10. These changes signal that certain analysts still see room for upside relative to their prior expectations.
Supportive views often tie higher price targets to the broader backdrop for U.S. biopharmaceuticals, where improving access to capital and active M&A and in licensing activity are seen as constructive for companies like Intellia.
These bullish stances generally assume Intellia can execute through current clinical and regulatory questions and eventually translate its pipeline into revenue growth that supports a higher P/E framework.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight the safety issue for nexiguran ziclumeran and the FDA hold as key overhangs. They suggest that sentiment could remain fragile while the timing and outcome of any resolution are unclear.
Several downgrades to more neutral ratings, including moves to Peer Perform and In Line, point to reduced conviction in a clear path to valuation upside, particularly after a severe liver toxicity event in the cardiomyopathy of transthyretin mediated amyloidosis program.
A cut in at least one price target to US$8 from US$17 reflects concerns that the upside case has become more constrained, with analysts questioning when investors might get better visibility on the ATTR program.
Even where price targets are only modestly adjusted, such as a move to US$12 from US$14, cautious analysts flag the risk that broader biotech optimism may not fully translate into sustained support for Intellia while program specific safety questions remain open.

What's in the News

FDA removed the clinical hold on the IND for the MAGNITUDE-2 Phase 3 trial of nexiguran ziclumeran for hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy, allowing that study to move toward resuming activities in this patient group (Key Developments).
Engagement with the FDA is ongoing regarding the clinical hold on the MAGNITUDE Phase 3 trial of nexiguran ziclumeran for transthyretin amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy. Timing and conditions for any restart of that trial are still being discussed (Key Developments).
The FDA clinical holds on MAGNITUDE and MAGNITUDE-2 were originally imposed after a patient in MAGNITUDE experienced Grade 4 liver transaminase elevations and increased total bilirubin that met the trial's pausing criteria, focusing attention on safety monitoring for nexiguran ziclumeran (Key Developments).
Intellia has aligned with the FDA on study modifications and mitigation steps for MAGNITUDE-1, including enhanced monitoring of liver lab tests. The company is working with trial investigators and regulators to resume enrollment in MAGNITUDE-2 as quickly as possible (Key Developments).
Nexiguran ziclumeran has Orphan Drug and RMAT designations from the FDA and Orphan Drug Designation from the European Commission. The company also highlights ongoing risks and uncertainties around regulatory review and the potential to resume and complete the MAGNITUDE and MAGNITUDE-2 programs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly, moving from about US$22.27 per share to about US$23.86 per share.
The discount rate is effectively unchanged, shifting marginally from about 7.14% to about 7.18%.
The revenue growth assumption remains steady at about 114.43%.
The net profit margin assumption has fallen slightly, adjusting from about 16.96% to about 16.05%.
The future P/E multiple has risen moderately, moving from about 40.16x to about 45.50x.

Accelerated clinical progress and expanding market opportunities position Intellia for earlier commercialization and significant long-term revenue growth.
Improved financial discipline and strong clinical validation support sustainable margins, enhanced payer acceptance, and recurring revenue from commercialization and partnerships.
Competitive pressures, high development costs, pipeline concentration, and reimbursement barriers threaten Intellia's growth, profitability, and ability to sustain its technological edge over time.

Catalysts

About Intellia Therapeutics

A clinical-stage gene editing company, focuses on the development of curative genome editing treatments.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing patient and physician enthusiasm for Intellia's lead in vivo CRISPR therapies is driving faster-than-expected enrollment across multiple late-stage clinical trials (including an expanded 1,200-patient ATTR cardiomyopathy study and strong uptake in HAE), positioning the company to achieve meaningful clinical readouts and regulatory milestones ahead of prior guidance-this advances timelines to potential commercialization, driving long-term revenue growth prospects.
The sustained expansion of the addressable market for Intellia's programs is reinforced by demographic trends-especially aging populations and the continued rise in genetic and chronic conditions like ATTR amyloidosis and HAE-supporting higher future patient volumes and underpinning potential multi-launch revenue inflection points.
Improving financial discipline, as evidenced by successful restructuring, declining GAAP operating expenses (~10% reduction YoY), and a robust cash runway into the first half of 2027, enables Intellia to absorb increased R&D investment, advance pipeline expansion, and build out commercial infrastructure without dilutive fundraising, supporting protection of net margins and improving future earnings visibility.
Strengthening real-world validation of the company's platform-with mature clinical data showing durable, attack-free results in HAE and deep TTR reductions plus positive functional outcomes in ATTR-should bolster pricing power, enhance payer acceptance, and create leverage for value-based reimbursement, directly benefiting gross margins and long-term profitability.
Rapid technological and regulatory advancements in gene-editing-including increased healthcare investments, accelerating review pathways, and support for first-in-class CRISPR therapies-create a favorable environment for Intellia's platform to secure approvals, forge additional partnership/licensing opportunities, and achieve sustainable, recurring non-dilutive revenues through both commercialization and collaborations, increasing top-line growth and earnings potential.

Intellia Therapeutics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Intellia Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Intellia Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 130.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Intellia Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Intellia Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -908.5% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Intellia Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $104.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.83) by about September 2028, up from $-480.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-597.2 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 49.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.4% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Intellia Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Mounting competition from alternative gene therapy and RNAi approaches-including established and newly launched therapies in ATTR amyloidosis and HAE-could limit nex-z and lonvo-z's market share and weaken Intellia's pricing power, impacting long-term revenue growth and gross margins.
Reliance on major late-stage clinical trial results for limited lead programs (nex-z, lonvo-z) creates revenue concentration risk; any regulatory, clinical, or safety setbacks could significantly delay or diminish future earnings and long-term profitability.
High R&D expenses and ongoing cash burn, combined with no near-term commercial product revenues, raise the risk of shareholder dilution or funding constraints, potentially pressuring net margins and earnings despite current cash runway guidance.
Payer scrutiny and reimbursement challenges for costly, potentially one-time gene-editing therapies-especially in crowded indications-could limit uptake, slow commercial ramp, and jeopardize expected revenue streams.
Advances in other gene editing or treatment modalities (such as prime editing, base editing, or more effective RNAi) could erode Intellia's technological lead, making its CRISPR platform less differentiated over the long term, which would negatively affect revenue growth and long-term valuation.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $34.083 for Intellia Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $106.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $648.6 million, earnings will come to $104.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 49.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $11.71, the analyst price target of $34.08 is 65.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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