Last Update 10 Dec 25

NTLA: Hereditary Angioedema Program Will Drive Future Upside Despite ATTR Safety Overhang

Analysts have modestly reduced their average price target on Intellia Therapeutics, trimming projected upside by a few dollars per share as mounting liver safety concerns around nexiguran ziclumeran, multiple downgrades, and lowered probability of approval assumptions for the ATTR program weigh more heavily against otherwise intact long term gene editing optionality and the opportunity in hereditary angioedema.

Analyst Commentary

Street research has turned more cautious on Intellia in the near term, with multiple downgrades and target cuts reflecting heightened uncertainty around the ATTR program and the broader platform safety profile, even as some analysts still highlight long term value in gene editing and the hereditary angioedema franchise.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to view lonvo z for hereditary angioedema as a key value driver, citing rapid Phase 3 enrollment and strong physician interest in a one time prophylactic therapy that could support a multibillion dollar peak sales opportunity.
Several positive ratings and higher price targets, even after the safety events, indicate conviction that the nexiguran program delay is manageable and that risk is largely confined to ATTR rather than the entire in vivo gene editing platform.
Some models still assume meaningful probability of approval for ATTR, albeit reduced, arguing that the recent selloff over discounts a single program safety issue and may offer an attractive reentry point if regulators do not impose a prolonged hold.
Longer term, bullish analysts see Intellia as one of the better positioned names in gene editing, with potential for pipeline expansion and multiple shots on goal beyond the currently challenged ATTR cardiomyopathy indication.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts argue that the Grade 4 liver toxicities and Hy's Law case materially weaken the risk benefit profile for ATTR cardiomyopathy, making it difficult to justify premium valuation versus safer, established therapies.
Several have either removed ATTR from their models or sharply reduced the probability of success and penetration assumptions, compressing long term revenue forecasts and resetting price targets materially lower.
The growing string of downgrades emphasizes concerns that platform level safety is becoming too big a risk, with the stock likely to trade with heightened volatility and limited upside until there is clear resolution of the liver safety signal.
Near term, bearish analysts see a narrow path to outperformance as the FDA hold and trial pauses introduce execution risk, extend timelines, and dampen confidence in in vivo gene editing across the space, weighing on sector sentiment and capital formation.

What's in the News

FDA places a clinical hold on Intellia's MAGNITUDE and MAGNITUDE 2 Phase 3 trials of nexiguran ziclumeran for ATTR after a patient experiences Grade 4 liver enzyme elevations, with the company pausing dosing and working to address regulators' concerns (Key Developments).
Intellia reports longer term Phase 1 data for nexiguran in hereditary ATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy showing deep, durable TTR reductions and mostly stable or improved neurologic and quality of life measures, with a BLA filing for ATTRv PN targeted by 2028 (Key Developments).
New Phase 1 data in ATTR cardiomyopathy show 24 month disease stabilization or improvement with nexiguran and a generally well tolerated safety profile, even as Phase 3 MAGNITUDE studies remain under FDA clinical hold (Key Developments).
Pooled Phase 1 and 2 results for lonvoguran in hereditary angioedema show deep and durable kallikrein reductions, with 97% of patients attack free and off long term prophylaxis as of the latest cut off (Key Developments).
Enrollment in the global Phase 3 HAELO trial of lonvoguran for hereditary angioedema is completed, keeping Intellia on track to submit a BLA in the second half of 2026 and preparing for a potential U.S. launch in 2027 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at an implied intrinsic value of approximately 22.43 per share, suggesting no material shift in long term fundamental assumptions.
Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 7.20% to 7.19%, indicating a marginal reduction in perceived risk or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at roughly 114.39%, reflecting a stable high growth outlook.
Net Profit Margin: Stable at about 16.03%, implying minimal change in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Fallen marginally from approximately 42.89x to 42.88x, signaling a negligible decrease in the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

Accelerated clinical progress and expanding market opportunities position Intellia for earlier commercialization and significant long-term revenue growth.
Improved financial discipline and strong clinical validation support sustainable margins, enhanced payer acceptance, and recurring revenue from commercialization and partnerships.
Competitive pressures, high development costs, pipeline concentration, and reimbursement barriers threaten Intellia's growth, profitability, and ability to sustain its technological edge over time.

Catalysts

About Intellia Therapeutics

A clinical-stage gene editing company, focuses on the development of curative genome editing treatments.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Growing patient and physician enthusiasm for Intellia's lead in vivo CRISPR therapies is driving faster-than-expected enrollment across multiple late-stage clinical trials (including an expanded 1,200-patient ATTR cardiomyopathy study and strong uptake in HAE), positioning the company to achieve meaningful clinical readouts and regulatory milestones ahead of prior guidance-this advances timelines to potential commercialization, driving long-term revenue growth prospects.
The sustained expansion of the addressable market for Intellia's programs is reinforced by demographic trends-especially aging populations and the continued rise in genetic and chronic conditions like ATTR amyloidosis and HAE-supporting higher future patient volumes and underpinning potential multi-launch revenue inflection points.
Improving financial discipline, as evidenced by successful restructuring, declining GAAP operating expenses (~10% reduction YoY), and a robust cash runway into the first half of 2027, enables Intellia to absorb increased R&D investment, advance pipeline expansion, and build out commercial infrastructure without dilutive fundraising, supporting protection of net margins and improving future earnings visibility.
Strengthening real-world validation of the company's platform-with mature clinical data showing durable, attack-free results in HAE and deep TTR reductions plus positive functional outcomes in ATTR-should bolster pricing power, enhance payer acceptance, and create leverage for value-based reimbursement, directly benefiting gross margins and long-term profitability.
Rapid technological and regulatory advancements in gene-editing-including increased healthcare investments, accelerating review pathways, and support for first-in-class CRISPR therapies-create a favorable environment for Intellia's platform to secure approvals, forge additional partnership/licensing opportunities, and achieve sustainable, recurring non-dilutive revenues through both commercialization and collaborations, increasing top-line growth and earnings potential.

Intellia Therapeutics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Intellia Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Intellia Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 130.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Intellia Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Intellia Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -908.5% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Intellia Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $104.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.83) by about September 2028, up from $-480.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-597.2 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 49.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.4% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Intellia Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Mounting competition from alternative gene therapy and RNAi approaches-including established and newly launched therapies in ATTR amyloidosis and HAE-could limit nex-z and lonvo-z's market share and weaken Intellia's pricing power, impacting long-term revenue growth and gross margins.
Reliance on major late-stage clinical trial results for limited lead programs (nex-z, lonvo-z) creates revenue concentration risk; any regulatory, clinical, or safety setbacks could significantly delay or diminish future earnings and long-term profitability.
High R&D expenses and ongoing cash burn, combined with no near-term commercial product revenues, raise the risk of shareholder dilution or funding constraints, potentially pressuring net margins and earnings despite current cash runway guidance.
Payer scrutiny and reimbursement challenges for costly, potentially one-time gene-editing therapies-especially in crowded indications-could limit uptake, slow commercial ramp, and jeopardize expected revenue streams.
Advances in other gene editing or treatment modalities (such as prime editing, base editing, or more effective RNAi) could erode Intellia's technological lead, making its CRISPR platform less differentiated over the long term, which would negatively affect revenue growth and long-term valuation.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $34.083 for Intellia Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $106.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $648.6 million, earnings will come to $104.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 49.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $11.71, the analyst price target of $34.08 is 65.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Paused Trials Will Drive Rebound After Resolution Of Safety Concerns