Last Update 06 Feb 26

KPTI: Lower Risk View Will Support 2026 Myelofibrosis Phase III Milestone

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Karyopharm Therapeutics to US$15.33, citing a slightly lower required return and similar long term growth and margin assumptions that keep the fair value estimate steady.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research has focused on how the updated price target for Karyopharm Therapeutics lines up with its risk profile and execution needs, rather than materially changing long term growth or margin assumptions.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the revised US$15.33 target as consistent with their existing growth and margin framework, suggesting they see the current valuation as generally aligned with the company’s long term potential under those assumptions.
The slightly lower required return underpinning the target implies analysts see less risk in the stock than before, which can support a higher present value for the same projected cash flows.
Keeping fair value estimates steady while adjusting the required return signals confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its current plan, rather than needing a more aggressive growth story to justify the price target.
The constructive initiation outlined in recent research points to interest in the name among institutional investors who are comfortable with the current risk reward trade off.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts may see the reliance on a slightly lower required return, instead of stronger growth or margin assumptions, as a sign that upside depends more on risk appetite than on clear evidence of improved fundamentals.
With the fair value estimate effectively unchanged, there is limited fresh support from new operational or financial drivers, which can temper enthusiasm for aggressive re rating.
If execution or clinical milestones slip relative to what is implicitly built into current models, the reduced required return could prove too optimistic, putting pressure on both the valuation and the price target.
The focus on maintaining similar long term assumptions may leave little room for disappointment, so any adverse data or regulatory outcomes could have an outsized effect on sentiment and perceived fair value.

What's in the News

Karyopharm issued preliminary earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting total revenue, including license and royalty revenue from partners, of approximately US$33 million for the period (company guidance).
For full year 2025, the company expects preliminary total revenue, including license and royalty revenue from partners, of approximately US$145 million (company guidance).
The board has proposed an amendment to the Restated Certificate of Incorporation to increase authorized capital stock from 58,333,333 to 111,000,000 shares and authorized common stock from 53,333,333 to 106,000,000 shares, referred to as the Authorized Shares Proposal (company filing).
A special or extraordinary shareholders meeting is scheduled for February 18, 2026, where investors are expected to be asked to vote on the proposed Authorized Shares Proposal and related matters (company meeting notice).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The fair value estimate is unchanged at US$15.33 per share, indicating no adjustment to the central valuation output.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has fallen slightly from 11.23% to 11.14%, reflecting a modest change in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: The revenue growth assumption is broadly stable at around 33.9% versus 33.8%, with only a very small numerical adjustment.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption remains effectively unchanged at about 17.0%.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple is essentially flat, moving marginally from 7.27x to 7.28x.

Positive trial results and global partnerships could significantly expand market reach, with robust demand driven by differentiated oncology therapies and advances in personalized medicine.
Streamlined operations and cost reductions are expected to improve profitability, supporting earnings growth alongside anticipated revenue increases from broader product approvals.
High liquidity risk, product concentration, intense competition, and regulatory uncertainty collectively threaten future profitability, financing options, and long-term shareholder value.

Catalysts

About Karyopharm Therapeutics

A commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes drugs directed against nuclear export for the treatment of cancer and other diseases in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Successful completion of enrollment and upcoming Phase III readouts for selinexor in myelofibrosis and endometrial cancer have the potential to significantly expand the approved indications and market size for Karyopharm, leveraging the increase in cancer incidence due to an aging population, which could drive substantial revenue growth if the pivotal data are positive over the next 12–24 months.
Increasing demand for innovative, targeted oncology therapies, supported by strong clinical differentiation (e.g., improved efficacy and tolerability over standard of care, all-oral combination potential), positions selinexor to benefit from payer and clinical adoption trends, supporting robust future pricing and revenue expansion.
Advancements in genomic-driven targeted therapies and biomarker-based enrollment (as in endometrial cancer trials) enhance the likelihood of regulatory approval and rapid adoption, with the company poised to capitalize on the broader industry movement toward personalized medicine, potentially boosting revenues and net margins through premium pricing.
Expansion of global commercialization partnerships and approvals in 50 countries are translating into higher royalty revenue (up 28% YoY) and broadened international market penetration, offering continued top-line growth and operating leverage as health system oncology spending rises worldwide.
Optimization of cost structure, including a 20% workforce reduction and lower R&D/SG&A spend, is expected to reduce annual cash burn by $13 million starting in late 2025/2026, improving operating margins and supporting earnings growth in tandem with anticipated revenue inflection from new indications.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Earnings and Revenue Growth

Karyopharm Therapeutics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Karyopharm Therapeutics's revenue will grow by 30.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Karyopharm Therapeutics will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Karyopharm Therapeutics's profit margin will increase from -90.0% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Karyopharm Therapeutics's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $48.6 million (and earnings per share of $5.4) by about September 2028, up from $-123.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 6.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -0.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.79% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Significant near-term liquidity risk exists, with cash reserves only sufficient to fund operations into January 2026 and a convertible note maturity due in October 2025, which may force dilution, distressed financing, or value-destructive strategic actions-negatively impacting net margins, earnings, and share price.
Heavy reliance on XPOVIO (selinexor) as the core revenue driver creates high product concentration risk; if upcoming Phase III readouts fail to show strong efficacy or differentiation, or if new competitors outpace XPOVIO, major declines in revenue and profitability are likely.
Intensifying competition in the multiple myeloma and broader oncology markets, including large pharma entrants and new modalities (such as CAR-Ts and bispecifics), threatens Karyopharm's pricing power, share of voice, and future revenue streams.
Ongoing net losses ($37.3 million in Q2 2025) and shrinking cash balances increase the likelihood of future dilution through equity raises or unfavorable debt, which can depress EPS and deter long-term investors.
Although global expansion is underway, high R&D and SG&A costs ($240–250 million annual spend guidance) and continued regulatory uncertainty (including FDA leadership changes and evolving approval criteria) increase the risk of delayed product launches, higher development costs, or limited reimbursement, all of which could constrain top-line growth and net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $25.917 for Karyopharm Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $67.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $302.6 million, earnings will come to $48.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 6.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $7.08, the analyst price target of $25.92 is 72.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Karyopharm Therapeutics?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Extended Cash Runway Will Support Pivotal Phase III Clinical Milestones