Last Update 07 Mar 26

Fair value Increased 1.72%

ROIV: Moderna Settlement Clears Path For 2026 Clinical Readout Upside

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Roivant Sciences higher to about $32, supported by updated models that factor in the $2.25b Moderna settlement. They view the resolution of the litigation as lifting a major overhang and refocusing attention on upcoming clinical readouts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates cluster around the same central theme, which is that the Moderna settlement reshapes how Roivant is being valued and where investors are focusing their attention. Price targets in the latest notes range from the high $20s to the mid $30s, and most of the discussion revolves around how to frame the settlement proceeds versus future execution on the pipeline.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the US$2.25b settlement and related proceeds to Genevant and Arbutus as a clean resolution of a key legal risk, which they see as supportive for Roivant's equity story now that attention can shift to clinical execution.
Several price target increases, including moves to about US$33 and US$34, are tied to updated models that explicitly factor in litigation proceeds, suggesting that the cash inflow is being treated as an incremental source of value rather than a one off event.
The view that the litigation "overhang" is lifted is leading some analysts to frame upcoming clinical readouts as the primary driver for future valuation, which puts more weight on Roivant's ability to convert its pipeline into commercial assets.
Ownership stakes that entitle Roivant to an estimated 60% to 70% share of Genevant and Arbutus proceeds are cited as a reason why some analysts see the settlement as meaningful to the balance sheet and to financial flexibility for future programs.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts note that while the settlement adds substantial proceeds, it also removes a near term upside catalyst tied specifically to the litigation outcome, which may limit short term re rating potential based solely on legal milestones.
There is an implied view that, with the legal issue resolved, Roivant now has less room for error on clinical and commercial execution because market attention is shifting squarely to trial outcomes and pipeline progression.
Neutral stances around the high US$20s price target suggest some analysts see the settlement proceeds as largely accounted for in their models already, with further upside hinging on factors that are still uncertain, such as timing and success of future readouts.
The contingent US$1.3b component of the settlement, which depends on the resolution of Moderna's S1498 appeal, introduces an element of timing and outcome risk that more cautious analysts flag when thinking about how much of the settlement to treat as durable value today.

What's in the News

Pulmovant, a Roivant company, has completed enrollment in the Phase 2 PHocus trial of mosliciguat for pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease, with topline data planned for the second half of 2026. (Key Developments)
Mosliciguat is also being studied in the Phase 2 PHactor open label trial, evaluating the drug in combination with inhaled treprostinil in participants with pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease. (Key Developments)
Roivant reports that enrollment in the ongoing Phase 2 trial of mosliciguat in pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease remains on track, with Pulmovant planning to report topline data in the second half of 2026. (Key Developments)
Across Roivant's broader pipeline, the company highlights continued progress on multiple programs, including potentially registrational trials in Gaucher disease, myasthenia gravis, chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, Sjogren's disease and a proof of concept trial in cutaneous lupus erythematosus. (Key Developments)
Roivant reports that from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, it repurchased no additional shares under its buyback program, having previously completed the repurchase of 270,000 shares for US$3.15m under the plan announced on August 11, 2025. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has risen slightly, with the model moving from about $31.73 to about $32.27 per share.
The Discount Rate is essentially unchanged, edging from about 7.52% to about 7.53%.
The Revenue Growth assumption is very large in both cases and has been adjusted modestly higher, from about 385% to a value that is still very large.
The Net Profit Margin has fallen meaningfully in the updated model, shifting from about 15.70% to about 10.89%.
The future P/E multiple has increased significantly, moving from about 138x to about 198x in the updated assumptions.

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Key Takeaways

Successful clinical trials and strategic deals may improve revenue and net margins by focusing on high-value areas.
Potential in-licensing and late-stage pipeline approvals could significantly enhance earnings and portfolio sales impact.
Execution risks and competitive pressures could delay Roivant's earnings growth and profitability amidst high R&D costs and legal uncertainties.

Catalysts

About Roivant Sciences

A commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for inflammation and immunology areas.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Roivant Sciences is focused on clinical trial execution with multiple ongoing trials, including late-stage programs like brepocitinib and batoclimab, which are expected to generate significant data readouts in the near future. Successful trial outcomes may positively impact future revenue streams.
The company has completed the Dermavant deal, potentially allowing a greater focus on clinical execution and the upside of VTAMA. This could improve net margins by refocusing capital and operational efforts on higher-value areas.
Roivant's late-stage pipeline, with potential approvals expected in the next couple of years, could lead to a projected $10 billion+ peak sales portfolio, significantly impacting earnings as these therapies are commercialized.
Business development activities with negotiations for potential in-licensing of new programs are ongoing, representing opportunities for revenue growth through the expansion of their development-stage clinical pipeline.
Roivant's commitment to returning capital to shareholders, including significant stock repurchases, is a catalyst for EPS growth, reflecting a potential undervaluation of current share prices if business fundamentals improve.

Roivant Sciences Earnings and Revenue Growth

Roivant Sciences Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Roivant Sciences's revenue will grow by 59.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Roivant Sciences will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Roivant Sciences's profit margin will increase from 3558.5% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Roivant Sciences's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could exepct earnigns to reach $83.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about January 2028, down from $4.6 billion today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 126.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 1.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 17.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 9.45% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.85%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Roivant Sciences Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Roivant Sciences faces execution risks in clinical trial management across multiple ongoing trials, which could negatively affect their revenue and delay potential earnings growth.
The competitive landscape, especially from well-established treatments like Humira, may limit Roivant's ability to capture market share quickly, impacting their expected revenue and potential profitability.
There are legal uncertainties with ongoing LNP litigation, which could result in financial liabilities or distract management, thereby affecting net margins.
Given the early development stage of many of Roivant’s drugs, there is a risk of clinical trial failures or delays, potentially impacting potential future revenues and profitability.
The projected high R&D expenses and ongoing share repurchase program could strain Roivant’s financial resources, potentially impacting their cash flow and net income.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.14 for Roivant Sciences based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $520.7 million, earnings will come to $83.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 126.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $11.15, the analyst's price target of $16.14 is 30.9% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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