Last Update 05 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 8.74%

TRST: Enterprise Pivot And Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Future Returns

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Trustpilot Group to approximately £2.90 per share from around £3.35, citing updated assumptions on discount rates and growth. This comes despite confidence that the company is successfully leveraging its first mover advantage and pivot toward higher value enterprise customers.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst feedback on Trustpilot continues to frame the company as a structurally advantaged player within online reviews, with recent coverage underscoring both the upside from its enterprise pivot and the execution risks that could affect the pace at which value is realized.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts argue that Trustpilot has successfully converted its first mover position into defensible market leadership in core geographies, supporting a premium multiple versus smaller regional competitors.
The ongoing shift toward higher value enterprise customers is seen as a key driver of improving unit economics, with potential for higher average revenue per customer and more resilient, contract based revenue streams.
Coverage initiations highlight a clearly defined growth roadmap, including deeper penetration into under monetized verticals, which is viewed as supportive of mid to high teens revenue growth over the medium term.
The new price target is framed as leaving room for multiple expansion if management can deliver consistent execution on enterprise wins and demonstrate operating leverage as the platform scales.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the pivot toward larger enterprises may lengthen sales cycles and introduce lumpiness in quarterly results, potentially constraining short term share price momentum.
There are concerns that intensifying competition in the broader customer experience and software stack could pressure pricing power, limiting upside to margin assumptions embedded in current valuations.
Some remain wary that elevated discount rate assumptions and macro uncertainty could weigh on valuation multiples, even if Trustpilot meets its operational targets.
Execution risk around integrating Trustpilot more deeply into enterprise workflows is also flagged, with any delays in product roadmap or adoption potentially derailing the expected growth trajectory.

What's in the News

Maintained full year 2025 guidance for high teens constant currency revenue growth, signaling management confidence in the enterprise led growth strategy (corporate guidance).
Completed repurchase of 12,401,475 shares, representing 2.99% of share capital for £270.45 million under the buyback program announced on September 17, 2024, supporting EPS accretion and capital return (buyback tranche update).
Launched a new share repurchase program of up to £30 million, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled, highlighting continued balance sheet strength and focus on shareholder returns (buyback transaction announcement).
Board of Directors authorized a further buyback plan on September 15, 2025, reinforcing a multi year commitment to active capital management (buyback transaction announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: reduced modestly from approximately £3.35 to about £3.06 per share. This reflects slightly more conservative assumptions.
Discount Rate: risen slightly from roughly 8.21% to about 8.55%, which increases the hurdle rate applied to future cash flows.
Revenue Growth: trimmed marginally from around 16.8% to approximately 16.3% per year. This indicates a small slowdown in expected top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: increased meaningfully from about 6.35% to roughly 9.12%. This signals improved expectations for future profitability.
Future P/E: fallen significantly from around 110.6x to about 62.6x, which suggests a lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

Trustpilot's product innovation and pricing strategies enhance retention and future revenue growth, alongside strong market expansion, particularly in the U.S.
Increased profitability is driven by operating leverage and a strategic shift towards enterprise clients with higher value contracts.
Foreign exchange volatility, growth deceleration, competition, macro-economic uncertainties, and innovation challenges could collectively strain Trustpilot's revenue stability and operational efficiency.

Catalysts

About Trustpilot Group

Engages in the development and hosting of an online review platform for businesses and consumers in the United Kingdom, North America, Europe, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Trustpilot's SaaS business model is supported by product innovation, resulting in new product launches within pricing plans that have improved net dollar retention from 99% to 103%, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
Bookings have grown by 21% in constant currency, particularly with strong growth in key markets like the U.S., which saw a 26% increase. This growth is expected to sustain revenue increases in the future.
Consumer adoption of Trustpilot is strong, with active reviews up by 23% and TrustBox impressions up by 19%, enhancing brand awareness and potential earnings through increased engagement.
Operating leverage has led to a 260 basis point increase in adjusted EBITDA margin to 11.4%, which signals an expectation of improved profitability going forward.
Strategic focus on enterprise clients and higher service packages is shifting the customer mix towards higher contract values, likely improving the company’s net margins and overall revenue.

Trustpilot Group Earnings and Revenue Growth

Trustpilot Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Trustpilot Group's revenue will grow by 16.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.0% today to 6.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $21.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.05) by about September 2028, up from $6.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $29.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $12.7 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 110.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 172.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Interactive Media and Services industry at 27.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Trustpilot Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The impact of foreign exchange volatility, particularly with the euro and sterling against the dollar, could adversely influence reported revenue despite strong bookings growth, affecting earnings.
The anticipated deceleration of growth, following the one-time benefit from migrating customers to new pricing plans, could challenge sustained revenue growth if not compensated by upsells within the new pricing bands, impacting future revenue stability.
Increasing competition and evolving market dynamics could strain Trustpilot's ability to maintain high retention rates and expand market share, potentially impacting net margins if customer acquisition costs rise relative to revenue.
Macro-economic uncertainties, like inflation or downturns, particularly in the U.S., could affect SME clients more significantly, leading to higher churn rates and impacting overall revenue and financial projections.
The need to continuously innovate while minimizing distractions from new ventures such as TrustLayer could strain resources, which may affect operational efficiency and net earnings if not managed effectively.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of £3.353 for Trustpilot Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of £4.18, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just £1.99.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $335.8 million, earnings will come to $21.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 110.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
Given the current share price of £1.94, the analyst price target of £3.35 is 42.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Enterprise Focus And New Products Will Boost Future Profitability