Last Update 09 Feb 26

CRTO: GenAI Commerce Efforts And Buybacks Will Support Upside Through 2026

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Criteo to about US$34 from US$36, reflecting a cautious view on smaller ad platforms as investors focus more on companies tied to GenAI or GPU enabled returns on capital.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research points to a more cautious stance on Criteo, with the price target adjusted to US$34. This broadly reflects how smaller ad platforms are being grouped by the market compared with companies tied more directly to GenAI or GPU enabled returns on capital.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the maintained rating at an Equal Weight level as a sign that Criteo is still viewed as a viable player in the internet sector, rather than being pushed to the sidelines.
The explicit separation between companies seen as GenAI or GPU leaders and smaller ad platforms can help set clearer expectations for Criteo’s valuation, instead of investors assuming it should trade in the same band as higher profile AI names.
By being grouped with other smaller ad platforms that face similar questions on long term returns on capital, Criteo may already have some execution risk reflected in its current valuation range.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that the lower price target to US$34 signals reduced confidence in near term upside, especially compared with companies that are more directly tied to GenAI or GPU enabled ROIC improvements.
The view that 2026 will be similar to 2025 for the wider internet sector suggests Criteo may continue to trade in a lower multiple band if investors stay focused on larger AI driven platforms.
Being categorized with subsectors that face disruption uncertainty, such as smaller less proven ad platforms, points to ongoing concerns around execution, competitive pressure and how consistently Criteo can convert its model into higher returns on capital.
This backdrop can limit how much investors are willing to pay for Criteo’s growth story, even if fundamentals remain stable, because capital may continue to favor clearer AI or GPU related earnings drivers.

What’s in the News

Criteo introduced its Agentic Commerce Recommendation Service to support AI shopping assistants with product recommendations built on the company’s commerce intelligence, using data from 720 million daily shoppers, about $1t in annual transactions, and 4.5 billion product SKUs (Key Developments).
The new service is available through Criteo’s Model Context Protocol and links AI powered shopping assistants directly to merchant inventory. It aims to turn consumer shopping queries into curated, transaction ready product recommendations instead of raw catalog feeds (Key Developments).
Criteo’s internal testing indicates the Agentic Commerce Recommendation Service delivered up to a 60% improvement in recommendation relevancy compared with third party approaches that rely only on product descriptions, based on Criteo’s own benchmarks (Key Developments).
The Board of Directors amended and restated the company’s by laws so that, as of December 8, 2025, share capital is €1,391,497.375 divided into 55,659,895 shares with a par value of €0.025 each, compared with the prior €1,443,620.975 divided into 57,744,839 shares (Key Developments).
Criteo scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for February 27, 2026 at its office on 32 rue Blanche, 75009, Paris, France (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The model fair value estimate is unchanged at US$35.75, indicating no adjustment to the core valuation output.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 7.34% to 7.42%, pointing to a modestly higher required return on capital in the model.
Revenue Growth: The implied revenue change remains essentially steady at about a 13.19% decline, with only a very small numerical adjustment in the inputs.
Net Profit Margin: The net profit margin assumption is stable at roughly 11.77%, with only a minor refinement in the underlying figure.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has risen slightly from 13.80x to 13.83x, a small upward tweak to the earnings multiple used in the model.

Expansion into AI-driven ad targeting, Retail and Commerce Media, and strategic partnerships is boosting platform reach and strengthening Criteo's ability to capture rising digital ad spend.
Strong privacy-compliant data assets, full-funnel cross-channel capabilities, and disciplined capital allocation position Criteo for enhanced profitability and shareholder returns.
Heavy competition, uncertain AI monetization, client risks, sluggish growth in newer segments, and rising operational costs threaten future revenue and sustained earnings expansion.

Catalysts

About Criteo

A technology company, provides marketing and monetization services and infrastructure on the open internet in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid adoption of AI-powered ad targeting and the development of Agentic AI solutions leveraging Criteo's structured commerce data is expected to boost campaign performance and unlock new monetization channels-supporting both revenue growth and potential margin expansion as productized, automated offerings gain scale.
Accelerating investments and product rollouts in Retail Media and Commerce Media (such as auction-based display and on-site video), along with strategic partnerships (WPP, dentsu, Mirakl, Microsoft), are broadening Criteo's platform reach and enabling share gains-positioning the company to capture a larger slice of the fast-growing digital ad spend and drive top-line growth.
The market-wide transition toward privacy-safe, first-party data-driven advertising, as third-party cookies are phased out, puts Criteo's commerce dataset and AI-powered audience tools at the center of demand from retailers and brands seeking compliant, high-performing ad solutions-potentially enhancing net margins as Criteo increases its market differentiation.
The increasing shift of advertiser budgets into full-funnel, cross-channel campaigns (including CTV and social) enables Criteo to tap into higher-growth segments and win incremental spend from agencies and brand clients, likely driving both revenue acceleration and margin improvement due to greater platform scale and efficiency.
Ongoing share buybacks and disciplined capital allocation-enabled by strong cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet-are expected to support earnings per share growth, providing additional upside for shareholders even in periods of moderate revenue expansion.

Criteo Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Criteo's revenue will decrease by 19.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.0% today to 14.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $147.8 million (and earnings per share of $2.87) by about September 2028, up from $136.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 8.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Media industry at 20.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.17% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.28%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Criteo Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Uncertainty in monetizing Agentic AI and AI-driven commerce, as leading large language model (LLM) vendors have not determined commercial models, creating visibility risk around future revenue streams from AI agent-based advertising in the long term.
Competition and market share pressures from tech giants (such as Amazon, Google, and Meta) with entrenched first-party data assets and broader platform control, which could constrain Criteo's ability to scale innovations like Retail Media and AI-driven solutions, ultimately impacting revenue growth and margins.
Client concentration risk and recent data showing stagnant overall activated media spend due to lower ad tech trading and reduced spend from certain large clients, highlighting ongoing vulnerability if Criteo cannot revitalize top-line growth-affecting both revenue and net margins.
Slow and uncertain ramp-up for key growth areas (Retail Media, programmatic display, CTV, and newer partnerships), combined with the challenge of onboarding new retailers and brands at scale, may result in lower-than-anticipated long-term revenue acceleration and operational leverage.
Rising investment needs in AI, engineering, and compliance amid intensifying competition for talent; if these expenses are not matched by sustained increases in gross profit, margin expansion and long-term earnings growth may be at risk.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $38.167 for Criteo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $51.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.0 billion, earnings will come to $147.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
Given the current share price of $23.13, the analyst price target of $38.17 is 39.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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