Last Update 16 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.53%

WYNN: UAE Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Despite Macau Weather Volatility

Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Wynn Resorts higher to approximately $143 from $141, reflecting modestly stronger long term revenue growth and a higher future P E multiple supported by rising Street price targets tied to the company's UAE expansion, resilient high end demand in Las Vegas, and improving Macau trends.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts remain constructive on Wynn Resorts, with several recent target price increases signaling growing confidence in the sustainability of the recovery and the upside from new projects. The cluster of upward revisions also supports a higher justified P E multiple as expectations for earnings power are recalibrated higher.

The Street is particularly focused on the intersection of high end customer resilience, Macau normalization, and the multiyear contribution from the UAE development, which together underpin a more favorable growth and return profile than previously assumed.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are lifting price targets into the low to mid $130s and as high as $150, reinforcing the view that current valuation does not fully reflect the company's medium term earnings trajectory.
Several research notes highlight the UAE project as a key incremental growth driver, with expectations that management will raise its own outlook as the region's rapid demand ramp becomes clearer.
Improving Macau trends and healthier market data have prompted upward revisions to outer year EBITDA estimates, supporting the case for durable cash flow growth and further multiple expansion.
Commentary around the Las Vegas portfolio emphasizes that the high end segment is holding up better than the broader market, which should help Wynn defend margins and returns even in a choppier macro environment.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, while in the minority, caution that Macau demand remains sensitive to travel and policy dynamics, which could introduce volatility into quarterly results and justify some discount to peak cycle valuation.
There is lingering concern that high expectations around the UAE property may leave limited room for execution missteps, making the stock vulnerable if ramp timing or regulatory parameters disappoint.
Some investors worry that the broader gaming sector re rating has moved ahead of fundamentals, and that any slowdown in high end consumer spend or group business could pressure Wynn's premium multiple.

What's in the News

Macau gaming stocks, including Wynn Resorts, trade weaker as the city braces for its fourth tropical storm in five weeks, highlighting ongoing weather related volatility for regional operators (Macau Business).
Cboe Global plans to launch a federally regulated prediction market platform that mirrors gambling style event contracts, putting renewed attention on publicly traded gaming names such as Wynn Resorts as investors assess competitive and regulatory dynamics across the broader wagering ecosystem (Bloomberg).
Wynn Resorts and Marjan LLC announce a second joint venture on Al Marjan Island, Janu Al Marjan Island, a luxury Aman Group resort and residences slated to open in 2028 directly across from Wynn Al Marjan Island, reinforcing the UAE as a long term growth pillar for the company (company announcement).
The company reports progress on its long running share repurchase program, having bought back 600 shares in the latest quarter and a cumulative 29.85 million shares, or about 27 percent of shares outstanding, since the authorization began in 2007, underscoring continued capital return to shareholders (company filing).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately $143.33 from $141.17, reflecting a modest upward revision in long-term assumptions.
The discount rate has increased marginally to about 10.88 percent from 10.69 percent, implying a slightly higher required return for equity holders.
Revenue growth has edged up to roughly 8.67 percent from 8.65 percent, signaling a very small improvement in long-run top-line expectations.
The net profit margin has eased fractionally to about 7.61 percent from 7.61 percent previously, indicating essentially stable profitability assumptions.
The future P/E multiple has risen slightly to around 27.0x from 26.5x, supporting a higher valuation anchored in improved earnings power and sentiment.

Expansion into luxury international markets and unique destination openings are poised to fuel long-term revenue and margin growth amid rising global wealth.
Premium guest experiences, property investments, and advanced technologies are expected to drive customer loyalty, operational efficiency, and sustained financial outperformance.
Heavy dependence on Macau, rising operational costs, high capital spending, and intensifying competition all heighten financial risk and threaten long-term earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Wynn Resorts

Designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid emergence of a larger, affluent middle class in Asia and the Middle East is driving increased demand for luxury integrated resorts, positioning Wynn's properties-especially Macau and the soon-to-open Wynn Al Marjan Island-to capture outsized growth in international gaming and hospitality spend, which is likely to result in higher long-term revenue and EBITDA growth.
Wynn's ability to consistently command premium pricing and higher spend per visitor-evidenced by above-market room rates, resilient high-end gaming volumes, and solid retail and F&B metrics-signals that its focus on elite experiences and luxury offerings will continue to support net margin expansion and earnings outperformance as global wealth grows.
The imminent launch of Wynn Al Marjan Island, with first-mover advantage and limited near-term competition in a potentially multi-billion-dollar new market, is a major forward catalyst that is currently underappreciated by investors and could drive a meaningful step-change in both consolidated revenue and EBITDAR.
Ongoing investments in both property upgrades (e.g., Encore Tower Remodel, Chairman's Club expansion, event venue construction) and the integration of advanced marketing and operational technologies provide a platform for enhanced guest personalization and operational efficiency, potentially leading to increased customer retention and improved margins.
The easing of travel restrictions and growth in international tourism, coupled with Wynn's robust forward group and convention bookings in Las Vegas, suggest a multi-year runway for occupancy and average rate improvement across core geographies, directly supporting sustainable top-line revenue and profitability growth.

Wynn Resorts Earnings and Revenue Growth

Wynn Resorts Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Wynn Resorts's revenue will grow by 4.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.5% today to 7.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $624.0 million (and earnings per share of $6.15) by about September 2028, up from $383.9 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $515.3 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 32.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.4% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.22%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Wynn Resorts Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on Macau exposes Wynn Resorts to geopolitical risks (e.g., US-China tensions, regulatory/licensing uncertainty), which could impact revenue stability and net margins if market conditions deteriorate or new restrictions are introduced.
Persistently rising labor, wage, and operating costs-especially in the US and Macau-along with union-related payroll pressures may constrain EBITDAR margins and put downward pressure on long-term earnings if revenue growth slows or occupancy declines.
Aggressive capital expenditure programs across multiple regions (Las Vegas upgrades, Macau property refreshes, and large-scale investment in Wynn Al Marjan Island) increase financial risk due to high fixed costs and leverage, potentially impacting free cash flow and net earnings if project ROI underdelivers or market conditions soften.
Increasing industry competition from new integrated resorts and gaming markets (including potential liberalization in Asia and development in UAE) threatens Wynn's market share, pricing power, and long-term revenue growth, particularly if high-end consumer demand becomes fragmented across more operators.
Uncertainty around changing global travel, regulatory, and entertainment trends-such as the continued rise of online gaming alternatives and evolving consumer preferences toward non-gaming or more sustainable experiences-may reduce physical visitation and gaming spend, negatively affecting revenue and profitability over time.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $128.088 for Wynn Resorts based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $147.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $110.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $8.0 billion, earnings will come to $624.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.2%.
Given the current share price of $121.49, the analyst price target of $128.09 is 5.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

WYNN: Positive Macau Trends Will Drive Luxury Demand Across Key Asian Markets