Last Update 05 Apr 26

Fair value Decreased 0.20%

WYNN: Free Cash Flow Pivot And UAE Project Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed the target fair value for Wynn Resorts slightly to about $141.83 from $142.11, reflecting refreshed views on Macau softness, solid Las Vegas performance, evolving free cash flow focus, and updated P/E assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on Wynn Resorts show a cluster of modest price target trims alongside a few upward revisions, pointing to mixed but generally constructive views on valuation, execution, and growth prospects.

Bullish Takeaways

Several bullish analysts maintain positive ratings even as they fine tune price targets, signaling continued confidence in Wynn's long term earnings power rather than a shift in fundamental stance.
Commentary around Q4 points to solid Las Vegas performance despite a tough comparison period, which supports the view that the company can execute in mature markets and sustain meaningful cash generation from its core properties.
Some research highlights Wynn's transition from a development focused story to one centered on free cash flow, with expectations for more geographically diversified cash flows once projects like Al Marjan are operational, an element that feeds directly into valuation frameworks.
Coverage initiations with Buy ratings and triple digit price targets frame Wynn as a higher end consumer exposure, with analysts pointing to market share gains in Las Vegas and Macau as a key pillar for the longer term growth case.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts trimming price targets, including a reduction to $136 and other single digit cuts, reflect caution around softer Macau results and the potential impact on group level earnings and P/E assumptions.
Multiple downward target revisions in a short time window suggest some concern that prior expectations may have been too optimistic, particularly for near term growth and margin delivery.
References to tough comps and Macau softness indicate that execution risk is front of mind, with any further weakness in those markets likely to weigh on how analysts frame upside versus current valuation.
Incremental cuts by firms such as JPMorgan point to a more conservative stance on what investors should be willing to pay for Wynn's earnings profile, especially while visibility on Macau trends and new project contributions remains limited.

What's in the News

Wynn reports that an unauthorized third party obtained certain employee data, brings in external cybersecurity experts to investigate, and states there has been no impact on guest experience or property operations and no observed misuse of the data so far (Reuters).
The company completes repurchases of 29,849,216 shares, described as 27.05% of shares, for a total of US$2,610.68m under the buyback that was announced on June 7, 2007, with no shares bought in the most recent reported tranche.
Current Chief Financial Officer Julie Cameron Doe plans to retire from the CFO role effective March 31, 2026 and then continue as a consultant to Wynn Resorts and as a Non Executive Director of Wynn Macau, Limited.
Craig Jeffrey Fullalove, currently CFO and Chief Administrative Officer of Wynn Macau and its Hong Kong listed entity, is set to become Wynn Resorts Chief Financial Officer on April 1, 2026, bringing more than 22 years of international finance experience.
Broader media coverage around prediction market platform Kalshi references Wynn Resorts alongside a group of publicly traded gaming and betting companies, which keeps the stock on the radar of investors following the sector (The Wall Street Journal, GI, Bookies).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Trimmed slightly to $141.83 from $142.11, a reduction of about 0.2%.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly to 11.39% from 10.90%, indicating a modestly higher required return in the model.
Revenue Growth: Assumed revenue growth rate adjusted to 4.74% from 5.01%, reflecting slightly more cautious top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Assumed net profit margin lifted to 9.18% from 8.10%, implying a higher modeled share of revenue flowing through to earnings.
Future P/E: Target future P/E trimmed to 26.0x from 29.2x, pointing to a lower earnings multiple applied in the updated valuation work.

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Key Takeaways

Expansion into luxury international markets and unique destination openings are poised to fuel long-term revenue and margin growth amid rising global wealth.
Premium guest experiences, property investments, and advanced technologies are expected to drive customer loyalty, operational efficiency, and sustained financial outperformance.
Heavy dependence on Macau, rising operational costs, high capital spending, and intensifying competition all heighten financial risk and threaten long-term earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Wynn Resorts

Designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid emergence of a larger, affluent middle class in Asia and the Middle East is driving increased demand for luxury integrated resorts, positioning Wynn's properties-especially Macau and the soon-to-open Wynn Al Marjan Island-to capture outsized growth in international gaming and hospitality spend, which is likely to result in higher long-term revenue and EBITDA growth.
Wynn's ability to consistently command premium pricing and higher spend per visitor-evidenced by above-market room rates, resilient high-end gaming volumes, and solid retail and F&B metrics-signals that its focus on elite experiences and luxury offerings will continue to support net margin expansion and earnings outperformance as global wealth grows.
The imminent launch of Wynn Al Marjan Island, with first-mover advantage and limited near-term competition in a potentially multi-billion-dollar new market, is a major forward catalyst that is currently underappreciated by investors and could drive a meaningful step-change in both consolidated revenue and EBITDAR.
Ongoing investments in both property upgrades (e.g., Encore Tower Remodel, Chairman's Club expansion, event venue construction) and the integration of advanced marketing and operational technologies provide a platform for enhanced guest personalization and operational efficiency, potentially leading to increased customer retention and improved margins.
The easing of travel restrictions and growth in international tourism, coupled with Wynn's robust forward group and convention bookings in Las Vegas, suggest a multi-year runway for occupancy and average rate improvement across core geographies, directly supporting sustainable top-line revenue and profitability growth.

Wynn Resorts Earnings and Revenue Growth

Wynn Resorts Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Wynn Resorts's revenue will grow by 4.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.6% today to 9.2% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $752.8 million (and earnings per share of $6.94) by about April 2029, up from $327.3 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $907.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $659.4 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.2x on those 2029 earnings, down from 32.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 21.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.74% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.39%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy reliance on Macau exposes Wynn Resorts to geopolitical risks (e.g., US-China tensions, regulatory/licensing uncertainty), which could impact revenue stability and net margins if market conditions deteriorate or new restrictions are introduced.
Persistently rising labor, wage, and operating costs-especially in the US and Macau-along with union-related payroll pressures may constrain EBITDAR margins and put downward pressure on long-term earnings if revenue growth slows or occupancy declines.
Aggressive capital expenditure programs across multiple regions (Las Vegas upgrades, Macau property refreshes, and large-scale investment in Wynn Al Marjan Island) increase financial risk due to high fixed costs and leverage, potentially impacting free cash flow and net earnings if project ROI underdelivers or market conditions soften.
Increasing industry competition from new integrated resorts and gaming markets (including potential liberalization in Asia and development in UAE) threatens Wynn's market share, pricing power, and long-term revenue growth, particularly if high-end consumer demand becomes fragmented across more operators.
Uncertainty around changing global travel, regulatory, and entertainment trends-such as the continued rise of online gaming alternatives and evolving consumer preferences toward non-gaming or more sustainable experiences-may reduce physical visitation and gaming spend, negatively affecting revenue and profitability over time.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $141.83 for Wynn Resorts based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $161.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $118.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $8.2 billion, earnings will come to $752.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.4%.
Given the current share price of $102.03, the analyst price target of $141.83 is 28.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

WYNN: Positive Macau Trends Will Drive Luxury Demand Across Key Asian Markets